Thursday, October 13, 2011

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 13-10 (Refresh)

*DJ Indonesia President: Reshuffle Plan Supported By Parties In Coalition
*DJ Indonesia President: Reshuffle Will Be Announced In Next Few Days


[Dow Jones] Indonesia rupiah-denominated government bonds are higher across the board amid improving sentiment for riskier emerging-markets assets. "Domestic inflation is easing and will likely remain manageable below 5% this year. So even when after BI cut its key rate to 6.50%; it still gives a more than 150bp spread," a local trader says. He adds profit-taking may hit the long-term notes after recent gains. The five-year yield falls to 5.82% from 6.0% Wednesday, the 10-year yield is at 6.31% vs 6.52%, the 15-year yield is at 6.94% vs 6.95% and the 20-year yield is at 7.15% vs 7.26%. (andreasismar.sandiwan@dowjones.com) 

2nd session JCI on 13.10.11
3675.38(+39.45pts)(+1.08%)
(H: 3702.75 ; L: 3636.57 )
Value:    5.98T (NG 278 B )
Volume: 3.80 B (NG 166 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 944 B !!!
USD/IDR : 8865(On Shore)
          8870(Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MINING.          (+2.17%)(1827.929 B )      
FINANCE.      (+0.87%)(1227.753 B )
MANUFACTUR (+1.10%)(1188.225 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+0.17%)(650.033 B )
PROPERTY.      (+0.92%)(448.985 B )
CONSUMER.      (-0.44%)(343.947 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BUMI.        @2211.    (166.20 B )
ASII.          @67127 (125.24 B )
BMRI.        @6690.  (72.38 B )    
BBNI.          @3688.  (71.48 B )
PTBA.      @17018. (68.90 B )
UNTR.      @23237 (55.27 B )

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
TLKM.      @7242.  (102.11 B )
JSMR.      @3814.    (24.13 B )
GGRM.    @58745. (14.34 B )
DOID.        @630.      (10.51 B )
CFIN.        @421.      (6.87 B )
LSIP.        @2054.  (6.66 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BUMI.        @2175.    (+1.16%)
ASII.          @67900 (+2.95%)
BMRI.        @6650.  (0.00%)
ADRO.      @1860.  (0.00%)
ENRG.      @152.      (-3.18%)
BBRI.        @6450.  (0.00%)
TLKM.      @7250.  (-1.36%)
BBKP.      @630.      (+12.50%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
ENRG.      @152.  (1.404 B )
ELTY.      @116.    (737.260 M )
BNBR.      @53.    (718.010 M )
KIJA.        @170.  (487.472 M )
DEWA.      @79.    (395.238 M )
CFIN-W.  @70.    (243.485 M )
BBKP.      @630.  (238.789 M )
BUMI.        @2175 (228.857 M )

Asing Tambah Posisi, IHSG Menguat 1%. Net foreign buy Rp908,1 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784900/asing-tambah-posisi-ihsg-menguat-1

Penghijauan sembilan sektor angkat indeks sebesar 1% di sesi sore
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318496403/79927/Penghijauan-sembilan-sektor-angkat-indeks-sebesar-1-di-sesi-sore

IHSG Gagal Bertahan di Level 3.700
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/160825/1743487/6/ihsg-gagal-bertahan-di-level-3700

Aksi Ambil Untung Tekan Bursa Eropa
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784880/aksi-ambil-untung-tekan-bursa-eropa

Inilah Target Jangka Pendek Saham Tambang
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784852/inilah-target-jangka-pendek-saham-tambang

Target Harga Saham Astra, Semen & Infrastruktur
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784865/target-harga-saham-astra-semen-infrastruktur

Grup Ciputra Anggarkan Capex Rp2 T di 2012
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784814/grup-ciputra-anggarkan-capex-rp2-t-di-2012

Adaro Beli 35% Saham Servo Meda Sejahtera
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784768/adaro-beli-35-saham-servo-meda-sejahtera

Total Penjualan Grup Ciputra Capai Rp3,14 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784778/total-penjualan-grup-ciputra-capai-rp314-t

Strategi untuk BDMN, BBNI dan BJBR
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784842/strategi-untuk-bdmn-bbni-dan-bjbr

Carrefour Kejar Saham Publik ALFA Pasca Tender Offer 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/122318/1743190/6/carrefour-kejar-saham-publik-alfa-pasca-tender-offer

Pekan ini, ENRG mulai pasok 2,5 juta kubik gas ke PLN
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318497068/79929/Pekan-ini-ENRG-mulai-pasok-25-juta-kubik-gas-ke-PLN

TINS tengah melakukan renegosiasi harga dengan buyer Asia
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318493418/79919/TINS-tengah-melakukan-renegosiasi-harga-dengan-buyer-Asia

Credit Suisse pangkas proyeksi, saham GGRM jatuh 3,8%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318490943/79914/Credit-Suisse-pangkas-proyeksi-saham-GGRM-jatuh-38

PT Timah in Talks With LG, Asian Buyers to Resume Tin Shipments
 Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- PT Timah, Indonesia’s largest tin producer, is renegotiating prices with Asian buyers including LG International Corp. as the company prepares to resume contractual shipments, according to an executive.     Timah wants buyers to agree on prices of more than $23,000 per metric ton, said Abrun Abubakar, corporate secretary at the Pangkalpinang-based company. Spot sales overseas will remain halted until the price reaches $25,000, he said by phone today. Timah joined Indonesian producers in suspending shipments from the country on Oct. 1 in a bid to reverse a rout in prices by choking off supplies to the global market.

CLSA:::: Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ) marketing sales in 9M11 reached Rp2.3tn ($258m), 92% of FY11 target of Rp2.5tn (+56% YoY). ASRI had raised this target from Rp1.75tn before. Comment: ASRI will launch its Pasar Kemis township in October, aiming to get Rp200bn pre-sales from the initial launch.  ASRI has ~1,000ha land bank in Pasar Kemis. ASRI is trading at 24% discount to company’s NAV of Rp560/sh.

Credit Suisse:::  1) STRATEGY: Risk to lag when the dust settles?
@JCI 3,636pts, CS Indonesia Universe is trading on 13.5x-11.7x 11F-12F PER on the back of 27%-15% EPS Growth, with 4-years Fibonacci trading range now 3,463pts-4,196pts. I agree with Teddy to accumulate Financial (BMRI, BBRI, then BTPN, BBNI and BBCA), Material (PTBA, ITMG, HRUM and SMGR), and Industrial (UNTR). Hold ASII as Thailand flood may have negative sentiment more than earnings downside. I continue to agree with Teddy Oetomo Indonesia is still trading at a premium to peers, combined with its relatively thin trading liquidity, the Indonesia market may continue to be exposed to the high volatility ahead given the current global financial market uncertainty. Buy on Weakness Indonesia!

JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--PT Energi Mega Persada (ENRG.JK) said Thursday that it  will start supplying 2.5 million standard cubic feet per day of gas from its Gelam TAC Block in Jambi on Sumatra island to state electricity company PLN by the end of this week. Energi Mega will sell the gas at $4.9 per million British thermal units, it said in a statement. The contract, which is for six years, also stipulates a 3% annual price increase. The agreement came amid rising demand for gas in Indonesia. PLN has been eager to lock in gas supplies to reduce its dependancy on costlier diesel and  coal.   


MARKET TALK: EUR/USD May Fall If Italian Bond Tender Results Poor

[Dow Jones] Indonesian shares are up 1.6% at 3692.682 in moderate volume midday, as foreigners continue snapping up most blue chips amid hopes the recent interest-rate cut will boost most companies' earnings, traders say. They expect the main index to find resistance at 3700. "If foreign buying continues, the main index could even easily break the important level of 3700 and may test the next resistance at 3730," says an analyst with a local securities firm. Foreigners are net buyers of IDR444 billion worth of shares so far. Among gainers, car maker Astra (ASII.JK) is up 2.3% at IDR67,450, food producer Indofood (INDF.JK) is up 5.7% at IDR5,600, while Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) is up 2.8% at IDR3,700. Profit-taking hits cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), which is down 4.1% at IDR58,500. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com) 

1st session JCI on 13.10.11
3692.68(+56.75pts)(+1.56%)
(H: 3696.06 ; L: 3636.57 )
Value:    3.11T. (NG 141 B )
Volume: 521M (NG 89 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 444 B
USD/IDR : 8920.    (On Shore)
                    8907.5 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MINING.          (+2.68%)(993.460 B )
FINANCE.        (+1.50%)(637.273 B )
MANUFACTUR(+1.50%)(559.823 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+0.13%)(292.792 B )
PROPERTY.    (+1.07%)(269.449 B )
CONSUMER.    (+0.51%)(160.575 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BUMI.      @2204.  (88.05 B )
BBRI.        @6528.  (45.90 B )
ASII.        @66716. (32.75 B )
INDF.        @5525.  (31.24 B )
UNTR.    @23188 (29.89 B )
ADRO.    @1873.    (23.53 B )
 

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
TLKM.    @7256.  (32.33 B )
GGRM.    @59064(11.60 B )
LSIP.        @2055.  (4.71 B )
DOID.      @635.      (4.06 B )
CMNP.    @1471.    (3.96 B )
ELTY.    @122.      (3.41 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BUMI.      @2250.    (+4.65%)
ASII.        @67450. (+2.27%)
ENRG.    @161.        (+2.54%)
BMRI.      @6700.    (+0.75%)
BBRI.      @6500.    (+0.77%)
ADRO.    @1880.    (+1.07%)
BBKP.    @630.        (+12.50%)
BBNI.      @3700.    (+2.77%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
ENRG.    @161.    (952.415 M )
BNBR.    @54.    (544.314 M )
ELTY.    @120.  (442.392 M )
KIJA.      @174.  (333.616 M )
DEWA.    @83.    (263.240 M )
BBKP.    @630.  (164.941 M )
ENRG-W@46.    (151.635 M )
CFIN-W.  @69.    (150.340 M )

 *DJ IMF: Greater Currency Appreciation Would Help Manage Inflation
*DJ IMF: Inflation Seen Peaking In 2H 2011, Falling Gradually 2012
*DJ IMF: Any China Stimulus Should Target Consumption Not Investment
*DJ IMF: China Can Deliver More Fiscal Stimulus If Necessary
*DJ IMF: Worse Euro-Zone Turbulence Poses 'Extreme' Risk For Asia
*DJ IMF: Asia Near-Term Risks 'Tilted Decidedly To The Downside'
*DJ IMF: Resilient Domestic Demand To Continue To Buoy Asian Growth
*DJ IMF: Credit Growth Remains Elevated Across Emerging Asia
*DJ IMF: Overheating Still A Concern In China, HK, Indonesia
*DJ IMF: Asia-Pacific Inflationary Pressures Remain Elevated


REMINDER:::: 13 Oktober  BW PLANTATION DIVIDEND, RP 9 CUM, BUMI TO COMPLETE FIRST-TRANCHE REPAYMENT OF $600 MILLION OF DEBT TO CIC BY THURSDAY ,Cum Right Issue KIJA 500:219 (250)

*DJ Perusahaan Gas Target Cut To IDR3050 Vs IDR5000 By Citigroup

Bloomberg: *PALM OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 0.6% TO 2,848 RINGGIT A METRIC TON

Bloomberg: China Export Growth Slowest Since Feb, Trade Surplus Misses Est.

CLSA:::: International Nickel Indonesia (INCO IJ) inaugurates US$410m hydro power plant in South Sulawesi. The hydro power plant is an important part of the infrastructure needed for INCO’s production expansion from 73,000 tons to 120,000 tons over the next five years. INCO plans to invest a total of US$2bn for new projects in Indonesia. Aside from nickel, INCO plans to diversify to copper, bauxite and coal. Comment: The commitment for additional investment comes as a new management team has been appointed at INCO. The plan to produce additional minerals and coal is reportedly at its existing Contract of Work site.

 *DJ Magnitude 6 Quake Strikes Off Indonesia's Bali Island -USGS
*DJ Indonesia Agency: 6.8 Richter Scale Quake, 143km Southwest Bali, No Tsunami

 CLSA::: Regulator BPMigas wants Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ) to sell expensive gas. Upstream oil and gas regulator BPMigas is encouraging PGAS to buy 140mmscfd LNG from the BP Plc (BP LN) led Tangguh LNG project in Papua at US$9/mmbtu to US$10/mmbtu. BPMigas continues to urge PGAS to renegotiate their existing contracts to a market price of US$5/mmbtu to US$6/mmbtu to increase government revenues. BPMigas estimates the legacy contracts cost the government US$4bn per year in lost revenues. Comment: BPMigas’ has been calling for relegation of existing contracts since July/August this year. We have factored in the 140mmscfd LNG contract into our numbers coming onstream in 2013 at a cost of US$8/mmbtu with a distribution margin of US$2.5/mmbtu.

Pikko Group has mandated PT Sinarmas Sekuritas as a brokerage that helps conducting a tender offer for the remaining shares in PT Royal Oak Development Tbk (RODA).
In an official announcement yesterday, Pikko Land said Sinarmas Sekuritas will hold administrative tasks of the tender offer, including the settlement.
Pikko Land, founded in British Virgin Island, intends to hold the tender offer of 4.3 billion shares or 31.99% stake in Royal Oak, following a 68.01% take over.

Fundamentally:
CIMB menurunkan rating sektor mining dari OVERWEIGHT menjadi UNDERWEIGHT. Setelah koreksi 5 bulan berturut turut, nickel merupakan logam dengan kinerja terburuk di LME, dan sepertinya hal ini akan berlanjut hingga tahun depan apalagi karena global slowdown. Kami memangkas 2011-12 EPS by 5.3-53.9% pada perusahaan nickel dan memangkas ASP nickel dan target harga. Nickel akan oversupply sekitar 40k-130k ton pada 2011-12. Target harga kami sekarang adalah ANTM TP Rp1570, INCO TP Rp2950. Valuasi sektor ini menjadi 10.9 core forward PER atau 44% downside dari bottom 6.1x PER yang pernah dicapai pada 2008-09 lalu.


Bloomberg: Indonesia Cuts Guaranteed Rupiah Deposit Rate to 7% From 7.25%

Bloomberg: Rubber Futures in Tokyo Pare Earlier Gain of 1.4%

Bloomberg: Garuda Indonesia to Add 18 Planes Next Month, Kontan Reports

Bloomberg: Timah Plans to Boost Coal Output to 2 Million Tons, Kontan Says

Bloomberg: FX: SGD and MYR May Outperform USD Amid Uncertainty: Goldman

Bloomberg: Indonesia May Limit Foreign Investment in Local Mines

Bloomberg: Emerging Stocks Set for Best Six-Day Gain Since ‘09 on State Aid

Inilah Menu Saham Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784581/inilah-menu-saham-hari-ini

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Siap-siap Ikuti Penguatan Bursa Regional 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/072608/1742888/6/ihsg-siap-siap-ikuti-penguatan-bursa-regional

Analis: IHSG akan bergerak mixed dan telah memasuki fase overbought
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318470547/79858/Analis-IHSG-akan-bergerak-mixed-dan-telah-memasuki-fase-overbought

Target IHSG Berikutnya, 3.800-3.900
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784591/target-ihsg-berikutnya-3800-3900

Bursa Saham Terangkat Sentimen BI Rate
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784725/bursa-saham-terangkat-sentimen-bi-rate

Jangka Menegah, IHSG Terpangkas 'Double Digit'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784608/jangka-menegah-ihsg-terpangkas-double-digit

Hasil Kinerja Sangat Baik, KRAS Menuju Rp 1500
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784724/hasil-kinerja-sangat-baik-kras-menuju-rp-1500

Sst.. MICE akan Buyback Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784727/sst-mice-akan-buyback-saham

Bank Mandiri Klaim sudah Turunkan Bunga Kredit
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784728/bank-mandiri-klaim-sudah-turunkan-bunga-kredit

Saham BORN Berpotensi ke Rp1.450
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784731/saham-born-berpotensi-ke-rp1450

Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Mandiri Melambat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784735/pertumbuhan-kredit-bank-mandiri-melambat

Saham Eksportir Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784740/saham-eksportir-angkat-bursa-asia

Prediksi suplai melonjak menekan pergerakan harga minyak
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318466348/79851/Prediksi-suplai-melonjak-menekan-pergerakan-harga-minyak

Glencore meminta saham Bumi Plc
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318465116/79848/Glencore-meminta-saham-Bumi-Plc

Harga CPO rontok, laba LSIP masih sip
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318463457/79844/Harga-CPO-rontok-laba-LSIP-masih-sip

Investor melepas valuta Asia dan masuk ke dollar AS
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318461498/79838/-Investor-melepas-valuta-Asia-dan-masuk-ke-dollar-AS

BATR kembali cari pinjaman US$ 500 juta
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318432223/79830/BATR-kembali-cari-pinjaman-US-500-juta

ELTY akan lepas saham Bakrie Toll Road sampai Rp 2 triliun
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318419607/79814/ELTY-akan-lepas-saham-Bakrie-Toll-Road-sampai-Rp-2-triliun

Harga kontrak emas kembali menanjak ke level tertinggi dua minggu
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318431479/79828/Harga-kontrak-emas-kembali-menanjak-ke-level-tertinggi-dua-minggu

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