Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 06 09 06:01 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Even though crude oil manages to edge higher, upside momentum continues to diminish with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. A short term top might be around the corner. Hence, we'd stay intraday neutral as long as crude oil remains below 73.36/38 cluster level (100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36). On the downside, below 69.70 minor support will bring deeper pull back but break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish. Sustained trading above 73.36/38 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that such medium term rise from 33.2 has already completed
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