Update Daily Investment News

Wall Street Week Ahead: Politics Overshadow Profits
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Stocks could be in for a rough ride in the week ahead as a focus on political risk overshadows what is clearly an improving profit picture. About a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report, but the emphasis will be on what goes on in Washington. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a very tight confirmation vote later in the week, and President Obama delivers his State of the Union address Wednesday night. There is also a Fed meeting and several major economic reports, including fresh housing data and fourth quarter GDP.
So far, nearly 20 percent of the S&P 500 has reported and 78 percent of those companies have beaten estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. Yet, stocks ignored the positives and sold off in the worst selling spree since the market bottomed in early March.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35022639

China Stocks’ Decline Signals Sell to DMG: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should “cash out” of China’s stocks after the Shanghai Composite Index dipped below its 100-day moving average, Singapore-based DMG & Partners Securities Pte. said. The measure is in a “corrective” fourth leg of a five- wave cycle, and traders should “cash out from their respective portfolios before the ship sinks even deeper,” DMG analyst James Lim wrote in a report.The benchmark index declined to as low as 3,062.63 on Jan. 22, below its 100-day moving average, before closing at 3,128.59. The gauge has lost 4.6 percent this year on concern the government will withdraw stimulus to prevent the world’s fastest-growing major economy from overheating. The gauge traded 0.1 percent lower at 3,126.28 at 10:31 a.m. local time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a540PCkhiLrI

Hang Seng Index May Post Deeper Decline: Technical Analysis
correction” if it falls below its 200-day moving average, according to analysts.The gauge, which surged 52 percent in 2009, has fallen 7.2 percent since China’s central bank unexpectedly raised banks’ reserve ratio by 50 basis points on Jan. 12. The index has slumped through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, closing at 20,726.18 on Jan. 22, some 810 points from the 200-day average of 19,915.59. The measure fell 1.4 percent to 20,454.79 as of 10:11 a.m. local time today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3HXAkgfoYbU

Euro May Rebound 3% on Support, Momentum: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may rebound more than 3 percent from an almost six-month low after finding support near $1.40, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.Europe’s single currency may climb to $1.4550 over the next few weeks after yesterday falling as low as $1.4029, the least since July 30, the bank said. The $1.40 level is also near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro’s rise from its 2008 low of $1.2330 to last year’s high of $1.5144.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9E7ksoe6Wec

Franc to Drop on Trend Stall, Intervention: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc will fall versus the euro once it gets to the “low 1.46s” on signs the strengthening trend is ending and as the risk rises that the central bank may intervene to curb the currency’s advance, according to MIG Bank SA. The TD Sequential, which seeks to anticipate “trend exhaustion,” and the TD Combo indicator, which traces a security’s price movements, have given a so-called 13 count buy countdown, suggesting the strengthening move is overextended, said Paul Day, an analyst at MIG Bank in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The franc may weaken to 1.5138 per euro once the Swiss National Bank steps in to limit its strength, Day said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCbEVeVLOPko

Commodity Price Index May Drop 9% by March: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A measure of commodity prices slipped below its 40-day moving average yesterday, which may signal a decline of as much as 9 percent by March, said Paul Hare, a technical analyst with the Linn Group Inc. The Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index of 17 raw materials including oil, gold and corn dropped below its moving average of about 484 yesterday for the first time in six weeks, before settling at 486.56. If the index closes below its 40-day average this week, it will slip further to 443 by late February or early March, Hare said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUitLaKdcRPY

Why a Company's Stock Falls Even After Positive Earnings
By: Reuters
While a majority of companies have reported better-than-expected profits in the current earnings season, a few key firms have missed their "whisper number," a metric that is similar but considerably tougher to beat.Missing the whisper number has been a factor in the market's inability to maintain its recent positive momentum, analysts say.Whisper numbers, according to www.WhisperNumber.com, the financial research firm that publishes the data, are unofficial estimates for corporate earnings. They are based on such metrics as fundamental research, past performance and "gut feel," and the numbers are often higher than analyst consensus estimates, making them harder to surpass.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35017793

Halftime Report: Signs Of A Top?
By: Lee Brodie Producer Halftime Report
The Fast Money traders are closely watching the action in the S&P 500 after the major market index turned negative for the first time this year.How should you be trading? The short-term momentum has flipped from bullish to bearish and that’s the first sign of a top, explains Bill Strazzullo of Bell Curve. Now I’d be watching for a second sign.If you go back to the March lows the biggest accumulation of long positions takes place around 1090. If we close below 1080 take it as another signal that we’ve put in a top, Strazzullo says.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35010941

Correction This Week — If Dow Breaks This Number: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped on Friday. What does the rise mean for the markets going forward? Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, and Alan Valdes, vice president of Kabrik Trading, shared their best investment ideas.“We’ve had a major run-up, it’s about time to have some pullback,” Wilsey told CNBC.“But I love this volatility because we sold some companies in December when they were higher, now we’re seeing things come down a little bit.”Wilsey said he hopes for a buying opportunity based on volatility levels.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35011548

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1163 extended further to as low as 1083 last week and the development suggests that whole decline from 1127.5 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1075.2 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view and target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 83.95 extended further to as low as 74.01 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 argues that whole rise from 68.59 is completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside. In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.