Sunday, August 15, 2010

Technical Analysis of Stocks/Commodity (Double Dip / Double Down?)

EW: MSCI Asia Pacific Gauge to Retest May Low: Technical Analysis
Week Ahead: Stock Market Watches Economy for Signs of Double Dip
Halftime: Technical Pattern of S&P 500 Signaling 10% Decline?
Darting, Volatile Market Gets New Description: Wolf
For Dow Theorists, Two Flashing Trends
Is It Time to Surrender to the Downtrend?
Euro May Test 8-Year Low on Ichimoku Break: Technical Analysis
Oil to Hold $75 as Rising Pattern Unbroken: Technical Analysis
‘Hindenburg Omen’ Suggests Slump in Stocks: Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Rebounds From One-Month Low After Falling Below $76
Semiconductor Index Breaks Diamond Pattern: Technical Analysis
Platinum May Fall to $1,492 on ‘Double Top’: Technical Analysis
Traders Should Watch Yen’s Gain Versus Yuan: Technical Analysis
Dollar Index Breaks Longest Losing Streak in 5 Years on Outlook
U.S. 10-Year Note Resistance at 2.62% Yield: Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Fibonacci Counts:  The market has traded very nicely compared to Fibonacci numbers from peaks and troughs.  The next couple days are a perfect time based on the Fibonacci count of 144 days to complete the right shoulder from the left shoulder.  The RSI provides room for this to occur.

SPX-daily:  The market has been tracing out a potential head and shoulders topping pattern for weeks.  I had two different time frames for that right shoulder, which included July 31st and August 6/9th.  August 10-11th is Fibonacci 143/144 days between left and right shoulders.  The chart below reflects the market has maintained price inside the wedge and below the prior high in red and the 62% retracement level in black.  It’s also below the upper Bollinger Band, which coincides with the retracement level of 62%.  I’d really like to see the right shoulder finish a tad below the upper band, as that fits well within the book, “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” on the correlation of a right shoulder and Bollinger Bands.

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