Friday, July 22, 2011

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 22-07 (Refresh)

Regional Positif, IHSG Semangat Catat Rekor Baru. Net foreign buy Rp508 miliar

Hore! Saham (Sari) ROTI Naik Rp175 ke Rp3.575

Laporan keuangan semester I INDF bakal telat dirilis

Dikabarkan akan menerbitkan obligasi, saham ASRI diburu investor

Melonjak 6%, investor gencar mengoleksi saham GJTL

Hebat, rekor baru indeks tembus di atas level 4.100

In The Middle Of Debt Restructuring
• The biggest player in yarn and fiber market.
• Limit on expansion fund.
• Debt restructuring plan.

Debt restructuring plan. POLY tries to restructure its secure debt as much as US$1 Bn or translate to
81% of total debts, with this scenario:
• As much as US$108 Mn will be paid in cash
• As much as US$892 Mn will be exchanged to 2 bn shares (debt equity swap)
By doing debt equity swap as much as US$892 million to 2 billion shares, the price per share is Rp4,059 or far from the current market price is Rp425. At first glance, the price is very far from current market prices and bond holders may not do the swap. But we suspect bondholders purchased the bond at a big discount from par value in secondary market, thus, POLY dares to offer with this price. herefore, Rp4,059 cannot be used as a benchmark of fair value of the stock price. Dilution as much as 46% as impact restructuring.

Currently there are constraints of the debt restructuring:
• The existence of rules of PPA is restricted to the elimination of interest
• Unable to restructure separately between the bonds held by Damiano and PPA.

But if it is realized, this restructuring scheme will be very positive for the company, because:
• Equity will be positive
• Funding can obtained from external funds and POLY production capacity can be increased
• Firm value will increase
Valuation, P/OPS’11E will be 3.0 x. Assuming debt equity swap will be realized in this year, the number of POLY’s shares will increase to 4.4 bn shares from 2.4 bn shares. By conservatively annualizing 1Q11 performance, P/OPS’11F will be 3.0x compared to its peers Tifico Fiber (TFCO) at 6.9x.

We view the high discount between POLY and TFCO was due to the high leverage level of POLY. Post-restructuring, we believe that either POLY can reduce its spread with TFCO or its share price may increase. Furthermore, POLY can be calculated by net asset value because previously almost all of their assets are secured for issuing debt. According to calculation in January 2010, total net asset value is US$591 million or approximately Rp1,230 per share (vs current price Rp435). We believe if the restructuring process is realized, the stock price will climb

Sesi I
IHSG Cuma 'Numpang Lewat' di Level 4.100. Net foreign buy Rp122,71 miliar.

Masih Naik, IHSG Sesi I Ditutup Dekati 4.100.

IHSG Sentuh 4.100, Belum Mahal

Bursa Hong Kong Bakal Akuisisi Bursa London?

Gajah Tunggal (GJTL IJ) sold 2.65% stake at Polychem (ADMG IJ). Gajah Tunggal, one of the country’s tyre producer, has sold 2.65% stake at Polychem Indonesia and plans to sell the rest 26.25% stake. Gajah Tunggal argued that it wanted to focus on its core business namely tyre making, not in plastic or polyester business. (CLSA-KZ)

Indonesia Equities: Astra Agro, Bank Danamon, London Sumatra

ADMG: First Half Result Profits Jumps 120% - KZ Initiate coverage BUY T/P Rp1,500

Obligasi II/2006 BSDE Dapat Peringkat A-

Buyback Saham, 'Buy' Saham Telkom

Laba Bersih Danasupra Merosot 53,33%

Rombak Direksi, Elia Jadi Dirut Elnusa

Anak Usaha OKAS Sewakan Rig Senilai US$4,98 Juta

Saham AALI masih menjadi incaran meski harga CPO mengalami penurunan

Medco Energi (MEDC) – Readying itself for M&A activities?

· We visited the company yesterday and found several key points to highlight. First, management changes in the company is on-going. Second, the company launched a standby loan facility of US$500mn recently. Given the big amount, we suspect that the company is readying itself for M&A, hearing that a number of large oil and gas blocks in Indonesia could be put on sale. MEDC’s current leverage level is still comfortable at 1.2x as of 1Q11.

· Third, Senoro project is showing good progress. To recap, the gas sales agreement (GSA) for Senoro-Toili was signed in Jan-09, for total volume of 250 mmscfd (MEDC’s part). The GSA complements the LNG head of agreement (HOA) at the downstream

REMINDER:: 25 Juli Rups BJBR, Cum dev ctra 6, cum dev GGRM 880, JTPE cum STOCK SPLIT, RASIO 5:1

26 Juli cum dev Indf 133, cum dev ipol RP 3 ,

27 Juli BUMI RP 41,78, cum dev SMGR RP 248,26, cum dev PTRO 1195,5
28 Juli Rups SONA, CKRA, FAST, Cum Dev PANR 1,07

29 Juli Rups Trub, Mitra International Resources

CS reduced target BDMN price from Rp 6.200,00 to Rp 5.700,00 and stay neutral on the stock.


AGENDA 22 Juli Rups Elsa, rups GMCW, CFIN RP 15, AMAG RP 10, PNIN RP 5



Bloomberg; Alam Sutera May Sell 1.1 Trillion Rupiah of Bonds, Bisnis Says

Palm Oil Gains as Much as 0.3% to 3,139 Ringgit a Metric Ton

Bloomberg: Rice Market Will See Trend of High Prices, Thai Exporters Say

AGENDA 22 Juli Rups Elsa, rups GMCW, CFIN RP 15, AMAG RP 10, PNIN RP 5

Bloomberg: Rice Market Will See Trend of High Prices, Thai Exporters Say

*DJ Borneo Lumbung Target Cut To IDR1600 Vs IDR1900 By Credit Suisse
*DJ Borneo Lumbung Cut To Neutral Vs Outperform By Credit Suisse

Inilah Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan Jumat (22/7)

Simak beberapa event penting yang bakal mempengaruhi pasar Asia hari ini

Porsi asing mencapai 35% di pasar SUN

ACES kebut pembangunan enam gerai lagi

INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Hedge fund Hong Kong dikabarkan akan membeli saham PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) di pasar saham. Hedge fund tersebut juga aktif untuk mengakumulasi saham grup Bakrie. Hedge fund tertarik karena tidak kebagian rights issue DOID.Pada perdagangan saham kemarin, saham DOID ditutup di level Rp1.010 per saham dengan volume perdagangan saham 41,04 juta saham.

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Saham Tempo Inti Media (TMPO) diperkirakan akan segera melesat ke level Rp300, karena adanya substitusi kepemilikan. Tersiar kabar bahwa salah satu taipan perusahaan media lokal akan membeli 10% porsi kepemilikan PT Jaya Raya Utama. Dengan rencana ini, maka komposisi kepemilikan TMPO akan berubah. Juga beredar kabar bahwa akan ada penggantian komposisi komisaris TMPO. Salah satu pucuk pimpinan perusahaan yang akan masuk dalam TMPO dinobatkan menjadi komisaris di sana. Perusahaan tahun ini menargetkan bisa membukukan peningkatan laba minimal 35%. Masuknya taipan perusahaan media ke TMPO akan membawa angin segar kepada korporasi dan akan mengarahkan TMPO lebih baik. Saham TMPO yang dalam beberapa tahun belakangan stagnan akan didongkrak kinerjanya setelah komposisi komisaris berubah. Target harga TMPO akan menyentuh level Rp 300 per lembar sahamnya. Saham TMPO pada perdagangan Kamis (21/7) ditutup auto reject pada level Rp149 atau naik 38 poin (34,23%). Volume transaksi mencapai 89.24 juta lembar, senilai Rp12.26 miliar. [ast]

INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Mitra strategis dikabarkan akan menginjeksi modal kepada PT Agis Tbk (TMPI) untuk mengembangkan usaha. Kabar tersebut membuat saham TMPI akan diburu oleh fund manager Eropa dan mendukung aksi korporasi perseroan dengan ekspansi ke sektor pertambangan. Saham TMPI akan dikerek ke level Rp200 per saham.
Pada perdagangan saham kemarin, saham TMPI ditutup di level Rp118 per saham dengan volume 32,41 juta saham.

Trades of the Day...
CIMB mempertahankan rating UNDERPERFORM untuk Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) dengan target harga Rp7400 dari metode DCF, dan memilih EXCL sebagai top picks. Kami cemas dengan rencana TLKM menyewakan gedungnya untuk operator hotel (melalui Graha Sarana Duta) dan ini bukan core business mereka. TLKM seharusnya menjual gedung ini untuk membantu balance sheet. TLKM memiliki 3k gedung dan lahan di Indonesia

CIMB mempertahankan rating OUTPERFORM untuk Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) dengan target harga Rp2800 dari metode GGM dengan ekspektasi result 2H11 yang lebih baik. Result 1H111 sekitar 43% dari angka tahunan kami sesuai ekspektasi karena faktor seasonal. Kredit tumbuh 21.5% yoy, 6% qoq. NIM turun ke 5.6% dari 6.1% karena naiknya cost of fund.

NPL naik ke 4.4% dari 4.0% dari KPR bersubsidi.

Bakrie & Brothers [ PDF ]
Size isn't everything - by Erwan Teguh
(BNBR IJ / BNBR.JK, Rp70, Conglomerate)
We are ceasing coverage on Bakrie and Brothers due to lack of investors interest. Our last ratings was Outperform with Rp144 target price.

Saham ADMG Layak Terbang ke Rp1.100

Laporan Kinerja Q2 INDF dan ICBP Akhir Agustus

PLTU, akan Dorong Penjualan Batubara BRAU

Anak Usaha OKAS Sewakan Rig Senilai US$4,98 Juta

Urusan utang beres, UNSP genjot bisnis Domas

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Dapat Sentimen Positif Lagi

Stocks closed sharply higher Thursday after EU leaders agreed on a final bailout package for Greece, in addition to an encouraging report on the Fed's mid-Atlantic manufacturing survey and some robust earnings reports.

Dow. 12724.44. +152.50+1.21%
Nasdaq. 2834.43. +20.20. +0.72%
S&P 500. 1343.80. +17.96. +1.35%
FTSE. 5899.89. +46.07. +0.79%
Dax. 7290.14. +68.78. +0.95%
CAC40. 3816.75. +62.15. +1.66%. Oil. 99.13. +0.73. +0.74%
Gold. 1587.000. -9.900. -0.62%
Rupiah. 8541
Euro. 1.4423

TLKM. 34.49.+1.15+3.45% Rp7364. ISAT. 31.70.+0.96+3.12%.Rp5414
BumiPLC 1115.000 +5.000.+0.450%
EIDO. 33.860. +0.460.+1.377%
Timah. 28000. -100. -0.36%. Nickel. 23760. -140. -0.59%

Corn. 673.000. -4.750. -0.70%
SoybeanOil.57.380. -0.320. -0.55%
Wheat. 677.250.-19.750.-2.83%
Coal15 Jul 120.61 vs.122.45(8 Jul)

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