Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 27-09 (Refresh)



JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's inflation has likely peaked in August and is
on track to come in at under 5.0% this year, providing the central bank with
room to cut the policy rate in the face of a potential global economic
slowdown, Bank Indonesia Director Perry Warjiyo said Tuesday."The global slowdown will impact the Indonesian economy. With slowing inflation, there's room to make an interest rate response, but the timing, sequencing and the magnitude of the cut are dynamic," Warjiyo told reporters on the sidelines of a central bank event. He said Bank Indonesia is revising down its forecast for portfolio inflows to near $10 billion for this year, from $12 billion previously, following the recent market selloff. 

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Gain Most Since Nov. 2009

Bloomberg: Sukuk Sales Drop 55% as Borrowing Costs Surge: Islamic Finance

Bloomberg: Indonesia Stock Index Rises 4.4%, Biggest Gain Since May 2010

Asing Net Buy, IHS Sesi I Ditutup Melesat 4,3%. Net foreign buy Rp135,44 miliar.

IHSG Paling Perkasa di Asia

Ini dia tiga bluechips penyokong indeks di sesi I

Saham Eropa Diprediksi Dibuka Naik Tajam

Sesi Dua : Pilih Saham Buruan Investor Asing

Astra Bagi Dividen Rp2,42 Triliun

Saranacentral Akan Lepas 30% Saham ke Publik

INCO Optimistis Produksi & Penjualan Sesuai Target

Nico Canter Diangkat Jadi Dirut INCO

Panin Financial Tawarkan Saham Rights Issue Rp125

Bapepam Beri Ijin Pra Efektif Rights Issue AMAG

Bapepam Berikan 'Lampu Hijau' Merger Matahari dan Meadow 

3 Lembaga Pemeringkat Masih Memberi 'Nada Positif' untuk RI

Mata uang Garuda perkasa seiring lonjakan pasar saham

Meski harga obligasi mulai menanjak, CDS Indonesia berpotensi tembus 500

Rencana pembagian dividen bikin saham ASII melaju ke level tertinggi tujuh pekan

Saham WIKA melaju untuk kali pertama dalam tujuh hari

UNTR optimistis dongkrak produksi batubara hingga 84 juta ton di 2011

Rencana menaikkan tarif tol mendorong saham JSMR ke level tertinggi 2 bulan

Rencana pembatasan ekspor timah menyebabkan saham TINS membumbung

Research Today: Astra and Indomobil, robust demand for trucks
Sarina has just written an interesting note on robust demand for trucks in Indo. Demand for commercial vehicles is stronger than passenger cars. This is clearly an indication of a surge in domestic business activities.
We have been very early in highlighting the pick up in FDI will provide an offset to portfolio outflows and underpinning the balance of payments.

Astra (ASII IJ) and Indomobil (IMAS IJ) are key listed beneficiaries given their strong presence in this segment. Three players control 95% of the market; Krama Yudha (non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share, ASII with 30.5% share, and IMAS with 23% share.

It is worth noting, however, that Suzuki only contributes 2% to IMAS revenue, given that IMAS only has 10% stake in Suzukis manufacturing, distribution and retailing (as a comparison ASII owns 100% stake in Toyota distribution and retailing, thus ASII captures the distribution upside). 75% of IMAS revenue comes from Nissan. For ASII, about 17-20% of revenues for 4-wheeler comes from commercial vehicles and 4-wheeler vehicle sales contribute 26% of ASII total revenues. This means that commercial vehicles contribute 4.4-5.2% of ASII total revenues.

The risk here is that Indos interest rate sensitive stocks like ASII could underperform Indian and Chinese peers, as India and China have more rooms + ammunition to loosen monetary policy going forward.
Key Points fromthereport:
* Commercial vehicles take up 33% of 4W demand. Sales grew 21% YoY in 8M11 to 193,019 units. This was faster than the 11% YoY growth in passenger cars sales.
    * Demand is domestic-driven, where net-exports only at 10% of the market.
    * Our forecast is 10-11% pa growth for total car demand, but we believe the upside will come from the FDIs, and rising income & middle class.
    * Three players control 95% of the market: Krama Yudha (Non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share; ASII with 30.5% share from selling Toyota, Daihatsu, UD Trucks, & Isuzu; and IMAS with 23% share from selling Hino, Suzuki, & Nissan.
    * Most brands are expanding production capacity; currently at high utilization rate.
    * ASII and IMAS have low forex exposure with healthy balance sheet.

ADRO fr CLSA::: Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) set to buy a third/fourth coal mine this year? Last month Adaro bought 2 coal mines (75% of PT Mustika Indah Permai and 10.2% of PT Bhakti Energi Persada) and they are planning to buy one to two additional coal mines by the end of this year. Comment Adaro has underperformed peers since the announcement of the acquisitions during late August. We rate the stock Underperform whilst uncertainty over a legal challenge for one of the purchased concessions from fellow coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) remains unresolved.

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow.
Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.

Agenda::: 27 September Cum Right Issue KIJA 219:500 (250) (ditunda?), INCO RUPSLB, RUPSLB KIAS, 28 September BBRI RUPSLB, MLBI RUPSLB, SMGR RUPSLB, Cum dev ITMG 1,168, "Update: Tarif tol akan naik mulai tgl 28 sept 11 sekitar 8% - 12%."…. TBLA cum dev Rp20, BUDI ACID JAYA DIVIDEND, RP 8 CUM, cum dev HEXA $0.0206

Bloomberg: Wijaya Karya Gains for First Time in 7 Days on Project Report

[Dow Jones] Citigroup forecasts the USD/IDR at 9,300 three months ahead, and at 8,900 in six to 12 months. It notes the IDR has been dragged down by similar forces plaguing KRW, that is, the abrupt unwinding of overcrowded foreign positions in money and bond markets. "Although outflows so far have mostly been concentrated at the short end, this could spread quite easily if tensions in global markets escalate as we expect." The central bank's foreign reserve cover (seven months of imports and short-term external debt) has improved significantly from pre-Lehman levels (4.7 months), and has been deployed in recent central bank interventions; but this matters less in the global environment that we are anticipating, the house says. The pair is now at 9,050. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)

[Dow Jones] Tin prices are responding to production shut downs in Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter. LME 3-month tin was the only metal to finish in positive territory Monday. "The main reason appears to be the very fast reaction of some Indonesian tin smelters on Banka island, who have already shut production as the fall in prices is making their operations unprofitable," says Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate. He says miners' unwillingness to sell ore at lower prices is another reason behind the halt. The smelters, grouped into PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera, are targeting prices of $23,000/ton before considering returning to production. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch says the Indonesian Tin Industry Association believes Indonesian tin exports will halve to 40,000 tons should prices remain low for an extended period. LME 3-month tin is at $20,900/ton, up $550 from its previous close. (arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com) 


Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains as Much as 1.3% to 2,943 Ringgit a Metric Ton

Bloomberg: Indonesia Stocks May See ‘Temporary Rebound’: Technical Analysis

Bloomberg: Indonesia to Halt Tin Exports to Support Prices; Futures Rally

Bloomberg: Asian Shares Snap Three Days of Losses as Materials, Banks Gain

Bloomberg: Rubber Futures Advance as Much as 4.7% in Tokyo

Bloomberg: Jasa Marga May Increase Toll-Road Tarrifs by 11%, Daily Reports

Inilah Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan Selasa (27/9)

Rekomendasi Saham
Bursa Global Makin Membaik, IHSG Siap Meniru 

Penjualan Naik, Mantain Buy Saham BUMI

Bagi Dividen, Hold Dulu Saham ASII

Jepang Siap Bantu Bailout Utang Yunani

Saatnya Investor Masuk ke Bursa Saham

Inilah Saham-saham Yang Akan Rebound Hari Ini

Penurunan Harga Emas, Tak Pengaruhi ANTM

Saatnya 'Buy on Weakness' Selektif

Saham MAPI Berpotensi Menuju Rp5.500

Cadangan Emas RI 'Tinggal' 30 Tahun

Wall Street Akhirnya Menguat 2% Lebih

Semester I-2011, laba bersih LPPF meningkat 99%

CPIN siapkan ekspansi besar-besaran

Sepanjang Agustus lalu, PTPP raih kontrak baru senilai Rp 744 miliar

Pasar bergejolak, BBTN tetap akan terbitkan KIK-EBA

Tiga penjamin emisi sedang negosiasi jual sisa saham GIAA

Penawaran saham perdana anak usaha KRAS kembali tertunda

Obligasi FAST oversubscribed empat kali

Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating Bukit Asam (PTBA) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp21,975 (dari Rp22,700), berdasarkan 11.3x CY12 P/E. Katalis akan datang dari perkembangan projek rel kereta api dan volume yang lebih baik. Kami mempertahankan rating OUTPERFORM karena defensive earnings quality dan valuasi yang menarik pada 8.1x FY12 P/E. Namun, kami telah menurunkan EPS 2011-13 sebesar 2.5-3.5% karena asumsi sales target yang lebih rendah 3.2% ke 14.8MT. Exposure yang tinggi terhadap market domestik (60% dari sales) memberikan defensive earning karena pasar ekspor yang melemah. Selesainya projek pembangkit listrik tahun ini juga memberikan tambahan penjualan. Technically: Bakrie Sumatra Plantations (UNSP IJ; IDR 275; Sell on strength) – data lainny

Bukit Asam [ PDF ] Home is where the demand is - by Peter P. Sutedja, CFA / Erindra Krisnawan (PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp14,750 - Tgt. Rp21,875, Coal Mining)
Maintain Outperform; lower price target of Rp21,875. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating given PTBA's defensive earnings quality and undemanding valuation of 7.6x CY12 P/E despite changes in our 2011-13 assumptions for sales volume, ASP, production cash costs, interest on cash and forex. Our 2011-13 EPS forecasts are cut by 2.5%-3.5% resulting in a lower target price of Rp21,875, down from Rp22,700 previously, still based on 11.3x CY12 P/E. Catalysts can be expected from the development of railway projects and better than expected railway transportation volume.

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk memperkirakan kenaikan tarif tol akan mencapai sekitar 11%. Dari 14 ruas tol yang rencananya naik, 11 ruas tol di antaranya merupakan milik Jasa Marga.

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow. Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.

Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Department Store Tbk recorded a 99.08% jump in net profit during the first half of this year as revenue rose, underpinned by stronger demand in the consumption sector. Matahari booked Rp258.98 billion net profit in 1H 2011 from Rp130.09 billion in 1H 2010. Operating profit of the retailer, that is controlled by Lippo Group, surged 81.08% to Rp324.16 billion from Rp179.01 billion. Gross profit increased 16.19% to Rp1.22 trillion from Rp1.05 trillion. Matahari posted a 12.73% increase in net revenue to Rp1.86 trillion from Rp1.65 trillion.  

Nikkei futures wait for correction and if break up again above resistant at 8392 then take buy at 8395 until target 8495 and stop loss at 8335, bullish target probability until 8612. (HP)

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