Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 18-10 (Refresh)

2nd session JCI on 18.10.11
(H: 3728.00 ; L: 3580.76 )
Value:    4.09T (NG 368 B )
Volume:  1.29 B (NG 449 M )
Foreign Nett Sell: 33 B
USD/IDR : 8815.      (On Shore)
                    8831.25 (Off Shore)

MINING.      (-4.98%) (1095.675 B )
FINANCE.  (-3.66%)(873.269 B )
MANUFACTUR(-1.89%)(766.389 B )
PROPERTY.  (-3.87%)(570.002 B )
INFRASTRUC(-1.57%)(486.132 B )
CONSUMER.  (-0.84%)(273.717 B )

ASII.      @67871 (55.45 B )
ADRO.  @1884.  (25.79 B )
PGAS.  @2670.  (22.42 B )
BBNI.      @3759.  (21.29 B )
BKSL.    @290.    (19.74 B )
BUMI.    @2037.  (14.07 B )

BMRI.    @6422 (107.18 B )
BBCA.    @7740.(38.02 B )
HRUM.  @7519.  (30.39 B )
BBRI.      @6399. (28.46 B )
JSMR.  @3686. (25.02 B )
TLKM.  @7093. (18.80 B )

BUMI.    @2025. (-7.95%)
BMRI.    @6400 (-5.18%)
BKSL.    @285.    (-1.72%)
ASII.      @68050(-1.37%)
BBRI.      @6400 (-4.47%)
ENRG.    @159.    (-7.01%)
TLKM.  @7150.  (+0.70%)
ADRO.  @1880.  (-4.08%)

BKSL.    @285.  (817.313 M )
ENRG.    @159.    (805.244 M )
KIJA.      @168.    (370.813 M )
ELTY.    @114.    (355.154 M )
BNBR.    @51.        (270.351 M )
BUMI.    @2025 (195.183 M )
ASRI.    @430.  (192.288 M )
DEWA.  @77.      (190.755 M )

Terseret Regional, IHSG Melemah 2,8%

248 Saham Terkoreksi, IHSG Jatuh 106 Poin 

Saham BKSL Teraktif Diperdagangkan Selasa (18/10)

Raih Kredit US$25 Juta, Ancora Siap Akuisisi

Asing Paling Banyak Lepas Saham BLTA Hari Ini

Inilah 10 Top Net Foreign Buy Saham Selasa (18/10)

BRMS Raup Dividen US$40,8 Juta dari Newmont

Q3, BCA Targetkan KPR Lebih dari Rp15 T

Menkeu Perancis: Rating Kredit Tidak dalam Bahaya

Laba Makin Besar, Perbankan Raup Rp 38,8 Triliun dalam 8 Bulan 

TV One Cs Listing di Bursa Saham 15 November 

Hingga akhir September, JSPT cetak pendapatan Rp 750 miliar

Perlambatan ekonomi China menyebabkan saham INCO dan ADRO terjungkal

Batal diakuisisi Lotte, saham MPPA melorot ke level terendah dua minggu

Harga CPO turun ke level terendah dalam sepekan terakhir

Nilai akuisisi APLN terhadap TMI senilai Rp 150,34 miliar

1st session JCI on 18.10.11
(H: 3728.00 ; L: 3605.11 )
Value:    1.89T.  (NG 80 B )
Volume: 2.99 B (NG 27 M )
Foreign Nett Sell: 33 B
USD/IDR : 8815.        (On Shore)
           8852.50. (Off Shore)

MINING.        (-4.45%)(548.956 B )
FINANCE.      (-3.68%)(353.546 B )
PROPERTY(-3.35%)(339.871 B )
MANUFACTUR(-2.29%)(286.085 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (-1.92%)(216.794 B )
CONSUMER.    (-2.17%)(64.556 B )

ASII.              @67901 (40.37 B )
PGAS.          @2682.  (16.62 B )
BKSL.            @292.    (16.31 B )
BUMI.            @2058.  (15.77 B )
ADRO.          @1897.  (12.60 B )
BBNI.              @3762.  (7.16 B )

BMRI.          @6486.  (54.50 B )
BBRI.            @6451.    (20.56 B )
TLKM.        @7071.    (15.73 B )
GGRM.        @54648 (11.81 B )
INCO.          @3276.    (10.51 B )
BORN.        @960.      (7.69 B )

BUMI.          @2050.  (-6.81% )
BKSL.        @295.      (+1.72%)
BMRI.          @6450.    (-4.44%)
ASII.            @68150.  (-1.23%)
ENRG.        @163.        (-4.67%)
BBRI.          @6400.    (-4.47%)
TLKM.        @7050.    (-0.70%)
TRAM.      @810.        (-3.57%)

BKSL.          @295.    (581.053 M )
ENRG.          @163.      (487.100 M )
KIJA.          @174.      (223.065 M )
BNBR.          @52.        (215.759 M )
ELTY.        @118.      (165.387 M )
DEWA.        @78.        (126.630 M )
ASRI.          @435.    (120.555 M )
BUMI.          @2050.  (108.722 M )

REMINDER Fr CC :: Land is King
Sentul City (BKSL) is Indonesia’s largest property developer strictly based on
land inventory, proportionately owning around 9,100 hectares in Sentul area,
strategically located between Jakarta and Bogor. The next biggest developer
is BSDE with around 4,500 hectares of land inventory. Big land inventory is a
blessing when property prices are on the run, eliminating any concern on land
replacement cost while allowing margin expansion. As a satellite city, Sentul
area offers unique topography being situated 300-1,100M above sea levels
with surrounding mountains and cooler weather compared with competing
developments. We start coverage with a BUY rating and TP of Rp400/share.

*DJ Bumi Resources Target Cut To IDR3100 Vs IDR4500 By Citigroup
*DJ Tambang Batubara Target Cut To IDR23,500 Vs IDR27,500 By Citigroup
*DJ Bumi Resources Target Cut To IDR3100 Vs IDR4500 By Citigroup

Agenda 18 Oktober  ASIA PACIFIC FIBERS (POLY)RUPSLB, Rups Bumi Citra Permai, Rups Jakarta Setiabudi, Rups SMDM, Pemerintah akan lelang lima seri SUN
19 Oktober  Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia (METI) akan menyelenggarakan pertemuan para pakar dan praktisi energi terbarukan dan efisiensi energi tingkat dunia di Bali, 17-19 Oktober 2011, Rups Onyx Capital, SEMEN GRESIK (PERSERO) RUPSLB

Bloomberg: Bumi Puts M&A on Hold as BRM Deal Shelved, Rothschild Says

Bloomberg: China 3Q GDP +9.1% y/y vs Est. +9.3%; Slowest Growth in 2 Years. China Sept. Industrial Production +13.8 y/y vs Est. +13.4%. China’s Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in 2 Years

Bloomberg: China One Step Closer to Easing, McDonough Says

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Drop Most in 2 Weeks as Europe Debt Optimism Fades

Bloomberg: Indonesia Coal Selloff Overdone, Citi Says

Bloomberg: Rubber in Tokyo Declines 2.3% to 313.8 Yen a Kilogram

Bloomberg: Visi Media Asia Seeks to Raise 640.1 Billion Rupiah in IPO

Bloomberg; Bumi Puts M&A on Hold as BRM Deal Shelved, Rothschild Says

Inilah Saham Second Liner & Bluechips Layak Beli

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Bakal 'Terjebak' Pelemahan Bursa Global 

BUMI tunda penjualan BRMS

Bursa Asia melorot ke level terendah dalam sebulan terakhir

BMTR jual 7,5% saham MNCN

Agung Podomoro Akuisisi Tiara Metropolitan Indah

Morgan Stanley Upgrade Harga BISI Jadi Rp1.750

Buruan Beli, Fund Manager Buru Saham MYOH

Investor Minyak Masuk, BULL Berpeluang ke Rp300

Saham ENRG Terbanyak Dibeli Asing, Senin (17/10)

Saham Bank: Pilih Dividen atau Gain?

Inilah Formasi Saham Pilihan Selasa (18/10)

Ketakutan Pasar (Paling Tidak) Tinggal 10%

Bank Pundi Raup Dana Right Issue II Rp382,2 M

Menkeu Jerman Berulah, Wall Street Memerah

IHSG Bullish, Palsu?

Harga kontrak emas melorot seiring reli dollar AS

CIMB mempertahankan rating sektor banking pada NEUTRAL. Meskipun loan growth naik 24% yoy kami tidak melihat tanda-tanda positive. Forex LDR naik dari 87% ke 94% yang menjadi masalah karena ketatnya likuiditas USD. Rupiah LDR naik ke 83% dari 80%. Faktor positive seperti loan growth, NIM dan asset quality belum cukup mengkompensasi naiknya forex LDR. Kami tetap menyukai BMRI, BBNI, BBKP masing-masing dengan TP Rp9400, Rp5200, Rp1200.

CIMB mempertahankan rating Bank Tabungan Pensiunan (BTPN) pada NEUTRAL dengan target harga Rp4700. Kami memprediksi result 4Q nanti akan menurun dibandingkan 3Q. Valuasi yang mahal juga tidak memberikan upside yang cukup bagi investor. Operation cost pada 3Q turun banyak karena berhentinya ekspansi sehingga core profit 3Q sudah mencapai 83% dari target 2011. Loan growth 3Q sekitar 31% yoy, lebih rendah dari ekspektasi kami 34%. NIM bertahan di 13%, NPL dan cost of credit sekitar 1.5% dan 0.9%. BTPN juga mulai bekerjasama dengan BFIN. Setiap pinjaman BFIN, BTPN akan menyediakan 90% funding dan credit risk dibagi secara pro-rata.

[Dow Jones] The USD/IDR is higher at 8,850, from 8,820 late Monday, as risk appetite wanes following declines on Wall Street, dealers say. "Bank Indonesia is not in the market so far, and may not intervene as long as the dollar remains below IDR9,000," a dealer says. Bank Indonesia was suspected to be virtually the sole seller of dollars in the market during the bout of fund outflows from September to early this month. Dealers tip a 8,830-8,880 range for the day

[Dow Jones] The HSI is set to fall, by over 2% if cues from the ADRs of blue-chip stocks are taken, tracking losses on Wall Street as the European debt issue flares up again. The HSI has rallied 16.1% in the past eight sessions (7 up, 1 down), in part on expectations that China may ease its monetary tightening stance, "driving concerns of not wanting to 'miss any rally' before year-end," says Goldman Sachs. Still, the house's view is for gradual normalization of policies in targeted areas, so "we may see more volatility in the coming months should policy signals look less one-directional than hoped, or we get more negative surprises from developed markets." New World Development (0017.HK) may lead a decline in blue chips on its plan to raise HK$12.34 billion via a 1-for-2 rights issue; AIA (1299.HK) may underperform more on concerns over a possible stake sell-down by AIG. The HSI ends Monday +2.0% at 18,873.99.

[Dow Jones] Thai shares are likely to fall, tracking declines on Wall Street Monday and regional bourses so far, after expectations for a quick end to the European debt crisis wane. Buying interest in stocks expected to benefit from the reconstruction process after the ongoing floods end may limit downside, says Tisco Securities strategist Viwat Techapoonphol. Thai PM Yingluck Shinawatra said Monday the government will need to spend around THB100 billion for reconstruction in areas damaged by the floods. Support is pegged at 955-960, with resistance at 975; the SET index ends 1.7% higher at 971.63 Monday.

[Dow Jones] The EUR and AUD are likely to fall if China economic data due later turn out to be weaker than expected and leave investors with an impression that the global economy's slowing, says Barclays Capital chief Japan strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. China is set to release industrial output and retail sales for September as well as GDP for the third quarter at 0200 GMT. The EUR/USD is last at 1.3758, the EUR/JPY is at 105.73, the AUD/JPY is at 78.28 and the AUD/USD is at 1.0185.

[Dow Jones] Crude slips in thin electronic trading, extending overnight losses. Traders are adjusting positions as they await China's July-September GDP data due at 0200 GMT, in which a April-June slowdown is expected on China's recent monetary tightening policy to combat inflation. "Even if the slowdown is very slight, crude prices may fall sharply," as the effect on sentiment is compounded by the unclear outlook for the European debt crisis, says Nihon Unicom analyst Hiroyuki Kikukawa says. November Nymex crude is down 45 cents at $86.35/bbl on Globex; December ICE Brent is off 24 cents at $109.92/bbl.

[Dow Jones] The EUR/USD is at 1.3761, up from 1.3735 earlier this morning; the move is due to some speculators' position adjustments amid the thinly-traded market, says a senior dealer at a major bank in Tokyo. "I don't see anything fresh or important so far this morning," he says. The EUR/JPY is also higher, now at 105.75 from 105.60. Dealers tip resistance for the EUR/USD at 1.3800, and for the EUR/JPY at 106.00.(

[Dow Jones] The Nikkei is down 1.3% at 8762.15 as "excessive expectations wane" for a far-reaching resolution to the euro-zone debt crisis after German leaders downplayed the realization of such hopes at the upcoming Oct. 23 EU summit, says Hideyuki Ishiguro, supervisor at investment strategy at Okasan Securities. As investors await further developments in the crisis, they are unlikely to bet aggressively, he says, tipping the Nikkei in a 8700-8800 range for the day. A firmer JPY is also seen negative to Japan exporters; USD/JPY is at 76.84, EUR/JPY is at 105.77. 27 of 33 Topix subindexes are lower; Fanuc (6954.TO) is down 3.2% at Y11,660 and TDK (6762.TO) is down 5.0% at Y2,778. Euro-exposed Canon (7751.TO) is down 1.7% at Y3,410 and Sony (6758.TO) is down 3.5% at Y1,551. Olympus (7733.TO) is down 3.7% at Y1,497 as a dispute has emerged between recently ousted company president Michael Woodford and other executives over the prices and advisory fees paid in a series of company acquisitions.

[Dow Jones] Singapore shares are likely to open lower after U.S. shares staged their steepest drop in two weeks Monday, as hopes that European leaders can work out a resolution to the region's sovereign debt crisis at this weekend's EU summit were dampened by Germany. Investors may also take the chance to book some profit after the benchmark STI ended up 1.3% at 2778.97 Monday, taking its rally from its October 5 low to 10.2%. Keppel Land (K17.SG) and its 40%-owned K-REIT (K71U.SG) are likely to be in focus after the latter said it is planning to raise a total of S$1.58 billion (S$976.3 million in a rights issue and another S$602.6 million in debt.) The REIT proposes to price the rights units at S$0.85 each, a 17.5% discount to its S$1.03 pre-suspension price Monday, and will use proceeds to buy 87.5% in the Ocean Financial Center in Singapore. Singapore Exchange (S68.SG) trades post FY1Q results, while NOL (N03.SG) and SIA (C6L.SG) both trade following operating data.

[Dow Jones] The Kospi is down 1.5% at 1836.69 amid renewed concerns about the euro zone debt crisis, analysts say; investors will likely keep a close eye on the five-day moving average near 1834. Still, "the market's supply and demand conditions have been good since the end of September. So long as foreigners don't sell aggressively...the market is likely to see sufficient dip-buying interest," says Hyundai Securities analyst Bae Sung-young. He also notes that refiners remain cheap valuation-wise, while automakers are expected to report relatively solid 3Q earnings. Shipbuilders are among the leading decliners; Hyundai Heavy (009540.SE) falls 3% to KRW291,000, while Daewoo Shipbuilding (042660.SE) sheds 2.3% to KRW25,800. Insurance company Samsung Life (032830.SE) underperforms the broader market after news CJ CheilJedang divested a part of its stake for KRW256.5 billion. Oil refiners are mixed, with SK Innovation (096770.SE) up 0.9% at KRW161,000 and S-Oil (010950.SE) off 1.4% at KRW109,000.

[Dow Jones] Malaysia shares are likely to fall following declines on Wall Street as expectations for a quick end to the European debt crisis wane. Blue-chip stocks could see mild profit taking after the recent strong gains with the KLCI rising more 5.6% in the past two weeks. "There may be sentiment-driven selling pressure in the near term but we think it will be short-lived as long as the KLCI doesn't fall below 1400," says a local dealer. He tips support at 1450 for the day. The KLCI ends Monday up 1.6% at 1465.35. Among stocks in focus, Leader Universal Holdings (4529.KU) may rise on a MYR480.1 million buyout offer while PacificMas (4782.KU) may rise after the company says OCBC has offered MYR450 million for its units.

[Dow Jones] Philippine shares are likely to retreat tracking sharp declines on Wall Street Monday amid continued concerns over European debt problems. The benchmark PSEi may head towards 3800 support after rising 1.5% to 4214.45 Monday. "We've been going up for quite awhile and the market is really vulnerable to a correction," says April Tan, research head with CitisecOnLine.com, noting the market's 10.2% advance over the past eight sessions. She adds investors may take profit on large caps that have risen substantially in recent sessions.

[Dow Jones] LME base metals are mostly lower with copper slipping about 1.4% to $7,390.75/ton, the lowest level of the session so far. The industrial metals, considered risky assets, follow regional stock markets lower after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's representative Monday said that solution to euro-zone's debt problems could take long and continue well into next year. Besides, a weak reading of the New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey business conditions index, which came in at minus-8.48 vs the minus-4.5 expected by economists, weighs on sentiment. Base metal traders will be looking ahead to China's economic data, to be released later in the trading day, for signs of future demand growth. LME 3-month copper is at $7,432/ton, down $62.50, aluminum is at $2,195/ton, down $20, lead is at $1,975/ton, down $10, nickel is at $18,800/ton, down $170 and tin is at $21,399/ton, down $96, while zinc is at $1,905.50/ton unchanged from its previous close.

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