Friday, February 10, 2012

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 10-02 (Refresh)

2nd SESSION JCI on 10.02.12
(By: Gita Adiwoso - D'Origin)


IHSG @3912.39 (-66.59 pts) (-1.67 %)
(H:3978.99 ; L:3895.61)
Value: 6.773 T (NG 1.679 T )
Volume: 3.785 B (NG 778 Th  )
Foreign Nett Sell: 528 B   
Incl. Crossing:
BBRI @ 6950 ~ 134 B (F vs F)
ASII @ 72950 ~ 121 B (D vs D)
USD/IDR: 8980(On Shore) 
                    9034 (Off Shore)


JCI for Monday (13.02.12):
Support:      3895 ; 3840
Resistance:  3954 ; 3971 


6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE. (-3.07%) (2.269 T )
MANUFACTUR (-1.90%) (1.568 T )
MINING. (-1.56%) (919.831 B )
INFRASTRUC (-0.27%) (744.539 B )
TRADE. (-0.40%) (627.636 B )
PROPERTY (-0.58%) (377.426 B )


7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
UNTR. @ 28857(80.96 B )
SMGR @ 11480 (80.30 B )
PGAS. @ 3470. (51.86 B )
BBNI. @ 3490. (40.06 B )
LSIP. @ 2747 (35.52 B )
INDF. @ 5018. (33.93 B )
CPIN. @ 2702. (27.91 B )


7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
BMRI. @ 6148. (370.21 B )
BBRI. @ 6675. (344.02 B )
BBCA. @ 7568. (192.63 B )
ASII. @ 71392 (181.15 B )
GGRM @ 55341 (41.34 B )
INCO. @ 3661. (13.12 B )
AKRA @ 3596. (11.12 B )


8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BMRI. @ 6150. (-2.38%)
BBRI. @ 6650. (-4.31 %)
ASII. @ 71200(-2.39%)
BBCA. @ 7550 (-4.43%)
SMGR @ 11450(+0.43%)
TLKM @ 6750. (-0.73%)
PTBA @ 20950 (0.00%)
BUMI. @ 2400 (-3.03%)


8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
GEMA. @ 315. (461.769 Lot)
ENRG. @ 180. (424.156 Lot)
UNSP. @ 305 (407.824 Lot)
ASRI. @ 560 (310.418 Lot)
BMRI. @ 6150 (267.410 Lot)
ELTY. @ 130. (204.342 Lot)
TRAM @ 950 (189.212 Lot)
TMPI. @ 153. (183.717 Lot)

BLOOMBERG: S&P DOWNGRADES PT BERLIAN LAJU TANKER TO 'D' FROM 'CC'

*S&P PUTS INDOSAT 'BB' RATING ON CREDITWATCH POSITIVE

Sektor Keuangan Tekan IHSG Turun 1,67%. net foreign sell Rp527,76 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828800/sektor-keuangan-tekan-ihsg-turun-167

Koreksi Saham-saham Blue Chip Paksa IHSG Anjlok 66 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/160816/1839570/6/koreksi-saham-saham-blue-chip-paksa-ihsg-anjlok-66-poin

Sinyal Bearish IHSG Ada di Mana-mana!
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828815/sinyal-bearish-ihsg-ada-di-mana-mana

Yawadwipa Prihatin Bakrie-Rothschild Berantem 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/140702/1839324/6/yawadwipa-prihatin-bakrie-rothschild-berantem

Yawadwipa Ngaku Tak Punya Uang Buat Beli Bumi Plc 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/141521/1839340/6/yawadwipa-ngaku-tak-punya-uang-buat-beli-bumi-plc

BLTA terhimpit utang karena tak fokus berbisnis
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/blta-terhimpit-utang-karena-tak-fokus-berbisnis

PERGERAKAN RUPIAH
Sepekan, rupiah keok 0,6%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/sepekan-rupiah-sudah-keok-06/2012/02/10

PBRX cetak pendapatan 2011 sebesar US$ 237 juta
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/pbrx-cetak-pendapatan-2011-sebesar-us-237-juta

Rencana ekspansi menyebabkan saham SHID meroket
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rencana-ekspansi-menyebabkan-saham-shid-meroket

ANTM ajukan dividen 35% - 45% dari laba bersih
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/antm-ajukan-dividen-35-45-dari-laba-bersih/2012/02/09

Harga CPO lanjut terpangkas untuk hari kedua
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-cpo-lanjut-terpangkas-untuk-hari-kedua


Bloomberg: Bumi Drops Most in 3 Months Amid Plan to Change Bumi Plc Board

Fitch ratings today reiterated its view that Greece will default even with the rescue package. Extraordinary meeting by Jean-Claude Juncker will be set at Feb 15.

Just being updated by ADRO on their 4Q11 operation results. Key takeaways :
1) 4Q11 production rose 19.6% yoy & sales rose 8.5%,
2) FY11 production of 47.7 (rose 13% yoy) inline with target,
3) next year production to rise 11% to 53 mn.

*DJ Bank Indonesia: Foreign Portfolio Investment $4.20B 2011 Vs $13.20B 2010
*DJ Bank Indonesia: Current Account Deficit $944M 4Q 2011 Vs Surplus $870M 4Q 2
*DJ Bank Indonesia: Capital, Financial Account Surplus $14.02B 2011 Vs $26.62B
*DJ Bank Indonesia: Current Account Surplus $2.07B 2011 Vs $5.14B 2010
*DJ Bank Indonesia: 2011 Balance Of Payments Surplus Vs $30.29B In 2010
*DJ Bank Indonesia: Balance Of Payments Surplus $11.9 Bln In 2011

Bukit Asam  [ PDF] 
Full steam ahead! 
PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK  |  OUTPERFORM - Maintained  |  Share Price Rp20700 - Tgt. Rp24500 
Coal Mining  |  - by Peter P. SUTEDJA / 
Greater clarity in PTBA’s long-term growth outlook as well as its defensive earnings quality are reasons to remain excited about the company, in spite of its recent share price outperformance. A change in assumptions results in lower FY12-13 earnings estimates. Nevertheless, PTBA’s attractive growth outlook and clearer long-term growth trajectory lift our valuation from 10.2x CY13 P/E to 12.0x CY13 P/E, raising our target price. We reiterate OUTPERFORM.


Indonesia Stock Movers: Aneka Tambang, Bumi Resources Minerals http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/indonesia-stock-movers-bakrie-sumatera-bumi-semen-gresik.html

BLOOMBERG: *INDONESIA CPI MAY RISE TO 5.2%-5.3% ON FUEL SUBSIDY LIMIT;     *INDONESIA 2012 INFLATION MAY ACCELERATE TO 4.5% ON POWER PRICE;

Cikarang Bondholders Shun New Notes on ‘Coercive�� Offer Terms

Emerging Stocks Fall From 6-Month High on Greece, China Concern


BREAKING NEWS:  Bank Indonesia Meeting – Another risky rate reduction  (Fr Credit Suisse )


BLOOMBERG: *INDONESIA TO BAN EXPORTS OF METAL ORE FROM 2014, MINISTRY SAYS;     *INDONESIA TO BAN RAW METAL EXPORTS OF COPPER, BAUXITE, NICKEL

Semen Gresik New Plants May Run at 70% of Capacity, Kontan Says

Aneka Plans to Proceed With $1B Smelter Project, Kontan Reports

Indonesia Cement Sector Posts Strong Start to Year: Citigroup

OCBC NISP Plans 1T Rupiah Rights Offer, Bisnis Indonesia Says

Bumi’s Largest Shareholders ‘Confident’ of Ousting Rothschild

Kalbe Farma May Pay Half of 2011 Profit as Dividend, Daily Says

Wijaya Karya Expects 2012 Net Income to Rise 23%, Kontan Says

Kalbe Farma May Pay Half of 2011 Profit as Dividend, Daily Says

London Sumatra Raised to 'Outperform' at CIMB

*TOWER BERSAMA SAID TO TARGET $200M LOAN FOR MOBILE TOWER BUY; *TOWER BERSAMA SAID TO DECREASE LOAN TARGET FROM $325M :TBIG IJ

Bloomberg: RATES: Barclays Suggests Reducing Duration on IDR Bonds

Bank Indonesia Sees Room to ‘Maneuver’ to Support Economy

China Exports Fall 1st Time in 2 Yrs; Surplus Biggest Since July

Asian Currencies Head for First Weekly Decline in 2012 on Greece

Palm Oil Drops as Malaysian Reserves May Fall Less Than Forecast

Palm Oil Price Forecast Raised at CIMB on South American Weather

Rubber Futures Decline to 318.6 Yen a Kilogram in Tokyo

[Dow Jones] Bank Indonesia again signals its intact dovish stance  and pro-growth focus as deputy governor Hartadi Sarwono says there is room for  further rate cuts if the global economy worsens and inflation continues  easing. Separately, Governor Nasution says inflation this year will likely  continue to slow over the next two months. The comments come after the central  bank surprised the market with a 25-bps cut Thursday on its view of
  deteriorating global economic conditions.

Indonesian Rupiah Falls, Bonds Advance After Interest-Rate Cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/indonesian-rupiah-falls-bonds-advance-after-interest-rate-cut.html

Kabar Positif dari Global, IHSG Tetap Lesu
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/093602/1839037/6/kabar-positif-dari-global-ihsg-tetap-lesu

Citigroup: Bursa emerging market akan terus reli
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/citigroup-bursa-emerging-market-akan-terus-reli/2012/02/10

Apa saja saham yang direkomendasikan hari ini?
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/apa-saja-saham-yang-direkomendasikan-hari-ini/2012/02/10

Citigroup down grade saham ASII menjadi netral
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/citigroup-down-grade-saham-asii-menjadi-netral

Pemisahan Rekening di BEI
Mayoritas sekuritas menggunakan dana nasabah
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/mayoritas-sekuritas-menggunakan-dana-nasabah

APLN Bentuk Dua Anak Usaha Baru
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828660/apln-bentuk-dua-anak-usaha-baru

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Masih dalam Trend Kelesuan 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/080936/1838979/6/ihsg-masih-dalam-trend-kelesuan

Orang Indonesia 'Hanya' Beli Rumah di Singapura Seharga Minimal Rp 9 Miliar 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/111232/1839143/1016/orang-indonesia-hanya-beli-rumah-di-singapura-seharga-minimal-rp-9-miliar

Khawatir Prospek Utang Yunani, Bursa Asia Melemah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828656/khawatir-prospek-utang-yunani-bursa-asia-melemah

Cermati TMPI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828645/cermati-tmpi

Sentimen pemangkasan bunga bikin rupiah kian loyo
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/sentimen-pemangkasan-bunga-bikin-rupiah-kian-loyo

Trading PTBA, CPIN, JSMR dan ISAT!
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828561/trading-ptba-cpin-jsmr-dan-isat

Indika Jual 28,7% Saham Petrosea Rp 1 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/10/100348/1839075/6/indika-jual-287-saham-petrosea-rp-1-triliun

Akan Dibeli Asing, GEMA Siap Meluncur ke Rp750
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828589/akan-dibeli-asing-gema-siap-meluncur-ke-rp750

BSDE Targetkan Pendapatan Tumbuh 15% di 2012
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828539/bsde-targetkan-pendapatan-tumbuh-15-di-2012

Saham ELTY Jadi 'Top Foreign Buy' Kamis (9/2)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828513/saham-elty-jadi-top-foreign-buy-kamis-92

WIKA Ikut Konsorsium PLTG Kaltim
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828509/wika-ikut-konsorsium-pltg-kaltim

Inilah Daftar 'Top Foreign Sell' Kamis (9/2)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828511/inilah-daftar-top-foreign-sell-kamis-92

2012, BSDE Incar Pendapatn dan Laba Tumbuh 15%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828504/2012-bsde-incar-pendapatn-dan-laba-tumbuh-15

WIKA Targetkan Kontrak Baru Capai Rp32,09 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1828545/wika-targetkan-kontrak-baru-capai-rp3209-t

2012, obligasi korporasi diprediksi capai Rp 70 T
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/2012-obligasi-korporasi-diprediksi-capai-rp-70-t/2012/02/10

Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating Indosat (ISAT) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp6800 berdasarkan metode DCF (WACC 11.7%). Kami cukup positif dengan deal 2500 tower antara ISAT & TBIG. ISAT mendapat opsi untuk memindahkan peralatan pada tiap tower milik TBIG. Namun lease payments dilakukan dalam US$ sehingga kembali menaikan hutang US$. Penjualan tower ini akan menambah Rp200-310 untuk saham ISAT dan menaikan core net profit sebesar 3-4% CIMB mempertahankan rating sektor otomotif pada OVERWEIGHT dengan target harga ASII & IMAS sebesar Rp77200 dan Rp14900. Dampak banjir Thailand sudah berakhir, namun penjualan bulan Jan12 berkurang karena CNY


9:36 AM 2/10 Penjualan sepeda motor turun 3% yoy ke 645k, namun penjualan mobil naik 6% yoy ke 78k pada Jan12. Toyota & Daihatsu terus memimpin pasar mobil dengan meluncurkan Avanza dan Xenia baru. Nissan menjadi no 3 dengan merek Juke. Penjualan otomotif akan booming pada 2013/4 dengan naiknya pendapatan masyarakat dan perkembangan jalan tol CIMB menaikan rating sektor CPO plantation dari NEUTRAL menjadi OVERWEIGHT karena valuasi yang lebih baik, export tax yang bisa ditanggung bersama dengan refiners. Target harga kami yang baru adalah AALI 24300, SIMP 1700, LSIP 3300, SGRO 4200, BWPT 2000. Kekeringan di amerika latin (khususnya Brazil & Argentina) menyebabkan turunnya produksi soybean & jagung sehingga kami menaikan 2012-13 CPO price forecasts sebesar 10-12% yang mempengaruhi FY12-13 EPS forecas

9:38 AM 2/10 Ace Hardware Indonesia [ PDF ] Ramping up growth ACES IJ / ACES.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Share Price Rp4450 - Tgt. Rp5300 Retail | - by Erwan TEGUH / Cindy EFFENDI Competition is driving Aces to elevate its game plan. Growth is to accelerate from an already higher pace, supported by rapidly growing middle class. A premium retailer deserves a premium valuation; Outperform maintained. Aces plans to add at least 60% new space over the next three years, lifting our growth outlook by 2% pts to 30% 3-year CAGR. Our FY11-13 EPS forecasts are upgraded, as is our new DCF-based target price (+18%) that implies 27x and 21x 2012-13 earnings, and some 0.7x PEG.

9:40 AM 2/10 TOP PICKS AND SPECIAL MENTION: GIAA: 600-750. It has element of surprises which include improvng financial performance due to better and solid management and efficiency. It now trades at a p/e ratio of 15X 2012 EPS vs Singapore Airlines of 22X. Fair value remains at IDR997/share. Best buy remains at any levels below IDR650.
9:41 AM 2/10 10 February 2012 Bahana Beacon – Spotlight XL Axiata (EXCL-BUY-IDR4,775-TP:IDR5,500) (selengkapnya email)

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