(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures may tumble as much as 23 percent this year because of lower energy prices and increasing vegetable oil supplies, according to analyst forecasts at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.The commodity may drop to 1,500 ringgit ($407) a metric ton in the second half, said Dorab Mistry, a director of Godrej International Ltd., one of India’s largest buyers. The cooking oil may trade between 1,400 ringgit and 1,500 ringgit in the next six months, said James Fry, managing director of research company LMC International Ltd.
Crude oil traded near $47 a barrel, set for a fourth week of gains, as OPEC prepares to meet this weekend to consider a cut in output. Crude oil for April delivery was at $46.73 a barrel, down 30 cents, at 8:23 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global oil market is oversupplied and OPEC will lower production if needed, Shokri Ghanem, who chairs Libya’s state- run National Oil Corp., said yesterday. Other ministers have called for the group to halt reductions. U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week amid a 3.5 percent drop in demand, the Energy Department reported on March 11.
Gold fell in Asia, poised for a third weekly decline and the longest losing streak since October, as a rebound in equities reduced investor demand for a haven and deflation concerns persisted.Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.5 percent to $922.28 an ounce, and traded at $924.10 at 3:24 p.m. in Singapore, paring a 3.2 percent gain made in the last two days. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest such fund backed by bullion, advanced 0.3 percent to a record 1,041.53 metric tons yesterday, according to figures on the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings are now larger than the 1,040.1 tons held by Switzerland in January, according to Swiss National Bank data.
TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS & FOOD
August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
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