Salami economics? Economists are often accused of using ‘salami tactics’ in revising their forecasts: adjust them frequently and in wafer-thin slices. Well, it’s different this time. While forecasts of economic growth around the globe have in fact been cut frequently over the last 3-6 months, the changes have been anything but wafer-thin. The Morgan Stanley economics team is no exception – during 4Q08 and 1Q09 we have been forced to cut our growth forecasts several times, and in big chunks. We thus remain more bearish than the consensus, seeing a record-deep recession and only tepid recovery in 2010.
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