Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 920.5 minor support suggests that an intraday top is in place at 934.8. And more importantly, it argues that rise from 880.1 has completed there after failing to take out upper channel resistance again. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for channel support at 890 first. On the upside, above 934.8 is needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, short term risk now remains on the downside.
Also, note that the corrective look of the rise from 865 and the unconvincing momentum argues that it's merely a correction to fall from 1007.7. In other words, such fall is still in progress and break of 880.1 support will affirm this case. Nevertheless, we're still expecting the whole correction from 1007.7 to conclude above 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 )
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.
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