Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 70.32 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that even enough crude oil struggles to take out 55 weeks and 55 months EMAs so far, with diminishing upside momentum, there is no confirmation of topping yet. Further rally is still mildly in favor and sustained trading above the mentioned EMAs will path the way to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next.
On the downside, however, note the possibility of a small head and shoulder top (with top at 70.32. Break of 66.79 will indicate that this reversal pattern is completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for at least a test of 59.61 support. Break there will confirm that rise from 73.83 is finished too and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to trend line support (now at 53.59) for confirmation.
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