Usd/Jpy made another fast, powerful and unexpected move to the upside during the Monday sessions. If the 99.73 high becomes a non factor in the near-term, then we will be looking for a more complex wave II) correction where a double zig-zag may be the case, labeled as wave w), x) and y). If this is the case, then prices may reach the 61.8% or 76.4% of wave I) retracement where we will be looking for a turning point. The wave count will be valid as long as the 99.73 highs will hold. Traders should be looking for new downside targets as soon as the market breaks wave x and 93.85 lows.
Dollar Index
4 Hour Chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 78.60, and 81.13. Looking for: Move higher, near the resistance line. Prices on the four hour dollar index chart are currently trading higher, away from 78.60 support approaching the upper line of a trading channel. As you will notice, we have reworked the previous wave count into a completed wave III/C , so a corrective wave IV may now be on the way. For the wave count to be correct then the current lows at 78.60 area must hold.
GBP/USD - 1.6545
Recent wave: wave c of 4 rally from 1.3655 (11 March 2009) is still under way
Trend : Up
The British pound continued last week's rally after penetrating the indicated 1.6045/86 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.8672-1.3500 and minimum 38.2% retracement of fall from 2.0162-1.3500) and extended to 1.6432 (exactly equality Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) on Monday before retreating, however, pullback is likely to be limited due to recent dollar's weakness elsewhere, therefore, buying cable on any dips is favoured to ride recent upmove. A breach of 1.6432 may extend gain to 1.6550 (1.618 times Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) The rally from from 1.3500 is viewed as a 4-wave type of corrective rise (a:1.4986, b:1.3655 and c is under way) to retrace intermediate decline from 1.8672, however, upside is likely to be capped at 1.6673/96 (high of 30 Oct 2008 and 61.8% retracement of 1.8672-1.3500).
On the dowside, only a breach of last Friday's high of 1.6200 would signal temporary top is made and bring stronger retracement of intermediate upmove from 1.5852 to 1.6142 (natural 50% Fibonacci retracement), however, 1.6053/74 (last Friday's New York support and 62% Fibonacci retracement) is expected to remain intact.
No comments:
Post a Comment