0330 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares higher as consumer, banks, resources names lead gains after overnight strength in European markets gives sentiment a lift, while local banks expected to report strong 4Q earnings. Main index +0.3% at 2524.014; 2490-2545 band eyed. Gainers lead decliners 53 to 29, 61 unchanged. Carmaker Astra International (ASII.JK) +0.7% at IDR35,200; Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK) +1.1% at IDR4,600; coal miner Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK) +1.1% at IDR2,250; nickel miner Aneka Tambang (ANTM.JK) +1.3% at IDR2,025. Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) steady at IDR1,890 but likely to gain after posting FY09 net profit of IDR2.48 trillion vs IDR1.22 trillion year earlier.
0423 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government likely to give around 8.71% yield for 5-year sukuk; 9.12% for 7-year sukuk, 9.97% for 11-year sukuk; 10.59% for 15-year sukuk in auction today, dealers say; government aims to raise IDR1 trillion, a relatively small amount that may reflect fact it's unwilling to give high yields; meanwhile regular auction of government sukuk expected to increase sukuk liquidity in secondary market, hence less premium warranted over conventional bonds; auction results likely out around 0800 GMT.
Economists see slower growth toward year-end
(Reuters) - Private-sector economists see the economy growing more quickly than previously forecast in the first three quarters of 2010, but growth would be slower than expected toward the end of the year, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61B2YP20100212
Goldman Sachs Says Buy Rupee, Rupiah, Ringgit Basket Versus Yen
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should buy a basket of the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the yen as the three Asian economies will grow at a faster pace than Japan.Currencies in Asia outside Japan are likely to strengthen this year, especially those with sound domestic demand, according to a team of Goldman analysts including Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist in Hong Kong. The currencies of India, Indonesia and Malaysia will also benefit as overseas investors buy those nations’ stocks, the analysts wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aM.YoBgFY8Uw
Dow May Drop on Trend Below 25-Day Average: Technical Analysis
Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average could fall a further 5.9 percent should the gauge continue to “trend” below its 25-day moving average, according to a technical analyst at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. The Dow average last week closed at 10,099.14, 5.8 percent below this year’s high on Jan. 19 and 2 percent lower than the 25-day average of 10,305.32.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ammtfvK6.Pl8
Dollar Index May Climb to Nine-Month High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Dollar Index may advance to its highest level in nine months as two moving averages cross, ANZ National Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns. The index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro and yen, may rise to 82.66, the highest since May 19, as its 55-day moving average climbs toward the 200-day mean, the bank said. The index gained about 14 percent to a three-year high the last time the shorter-term average surpassed the longer one in September 2008. It traded at 80.272 as of 10:43 a.m. in Tokyo.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aeoB1zkHSIgs
Gold May Rebound, Advance Toward $1,161: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gold’s drop from its December record may precede a rebound toward $1,161 an ounce, according to technical analysis by Citigroup Inc. The attached chart shows gold is nearing trend resistance at $1,104 an ounce. Gains above that level would constitute a “bullish break” and might signal a further climb toward the January high of $1,161, according to Citigroup.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaoeSpTdc3Is
Euro Risks Falling Further, Says SocGen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may fall by 1.6 percent in the near term before gaining ground again, according to Societe Generale SA, citing trading patterns. The euro, which has lost 5.2 percent against the dollar this year, may drop to $1.3485 initially or to the “lower end of the tentative declining channel” at $1.3390, said Hugues Naka, a technical analyst at SocGen in Paris.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aT2GtlX6ckCs
Euro May Fall Versus Yen, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may extend its declines against the Japanese yen, according to technical indicators, Commerzbank said. The euro remains within the confines of a so-called downchannel, which leaves the immediate outlook negative, Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London, wrote in a research report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajiMFJ2LYL2k
Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune: Matthew Lynn
(Bloomberg) -- This columnist is usually reluctant to respond to requests for career advice that occasionally find their way into my e-mail box. Yet from time to time, there is a move so obvious for anyone finishing college or university this year, or contemplating their next step up the career ladder, that it is worth pointing out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXOz8SejRo0w
Mining M&A May Double This Year, Ernst & Young Says
(Bloomberg) -- The value of mining mergers and acquisitions may more than double this year, snapping a two-year decline, as China and India seek to secure supplies of raw materials, Ernst & Young LLP said. The value may rebound to 2006’s levels when $175 billion of deals were done, after halving to $60 billion last year, Ernst & Young’s Global Mining & Metals Leader Mike Elliot said in an interview. Deals peaked at $210 billion in 2007, according to a report by the consulting firm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSTQJ2A336X4
0228 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.5% at 10,060.34 midday, as investors engage in buying back from yesterday's losses, says Yumi Nishimura, market analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets. "But investors may not chase the market higher due to lack of cues and low volume today," she says, with some Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday. TSE 1st tier morning trading volume total just 745 million shares. Nikkei may continue to find resistance at 10,100, Nishimura adds. 24/33 subindexes higher. Jupiter Telecommunications (4817.JA), "J-Com", bid-only from opening bell on Sumitomo Corp's (8053.TO) tender offer. Exporters with high exposure to European market lower on ongoing worries about Greek debt problems. Mazda (7261.TO) down 1.4% at Y217.
0400 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD unlikely to get any help from German ZEW business sentiment survey for February due at 1000 GMT, outcome of EU finance minister meeting later, says Mizuho Securities global economist Hideki Hayashi. These events "are unlikely to yield any new, euro-positive trading cues," Hayashi says, "judging from the euro-zone GDP released last week and the contents of the euro-zone finance ministers' meeting." Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average expect business expectations index of ZEW survey to drop back to 41.5 in February from 47.2 in January; many market participants expect no major details on any fiscal support for Greece to emerge from meeting of euro-zone finance ministers concluding later. EUR/USD last 1.3624.(ATM)
0244 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.6% at 1602.03 in thin volume, led by steelmakers, auto plays; but declines in banks likely to cap further gains. Posco (005490.SE) +2.6% at KRW548,000, Hyundai Steel (004020.SE) +2.8% at KRW85,000; "Steel market prices stopped declining last week," says Moon Jeong-up at Daishin Securities, adding "There are expectations for a rise in steel prices after the Lunar New Year holidays...as the steel industry is about to enter its seasonally strong March. There's also more of upward momentum for steel prices as China's demand for steel is expected to remain strong on expected strong economic growth there this year, although the prices can fluctuate whenever there's any further tightening move in China." Hyundai Motor (005380.SE) +1.7% at KRW118,000, Kia Motors (000270.SE) +3.1% at KRW21,700 on ongoing expectations their U.S. market share to increase as Toyota saga continues. But KB Financial (105560.SE) down 1.4% at KRW50,300 on lingering uncertainties over debt issues in Greece. Kospi pegged tipped in 1680-1610 band today.
0225 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares likely rangebound but biased up following gains on European markets overnight. Index tipped in 2490-2545 band after closing down 0.7% Monday at 2517.456; volume likely thin as U.S. markets closed overnight, many Asian indexes remain shut today for Lunar New Year. Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK), Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) may rise on expectations of strong 4Q earnings; Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK) also expected to rise due to strong coal sector outlook, traders say. Trader at Lautandhana Securindo says investors likely look to accumulate banks on dips after recent weakness.
1233 GMT [Dow Jones] The euro remains a clear sell says Standard Bank's Steve Barrow, with EUR/USD likely to have a rapid fall to the 1.30 region over the next month or two. Barrow says euro zone officials are trying to argue the current mess is a Greek problem and if this can be corrected then the whole system will be safe. Barrow argues instead that the fault lines are in the construction of EMU itself and not in Greece's abdication of the rules, and so pressure on the system and the euro is likely to intensify, rather than diminish. EUR/USD trades at 1.3620.
1211 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD rises to the day's high of 1.5720 on stop hunting says a trader. He adds the holiday thinned market is perfect for one or two large bank's to try and find where the weak stops are. The spot has now slipped back to 1.57 and the trader says any further upside move will likely struggle in the 1.5770 area, which has capped for the past week.
0449 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD rises as non-Japanese hedge funds, Japanese short-term players cover shorts on view that with market heavily EUR-short, any short-covering by other players could push EUR up amid thin market due to Lunar New Year holiday elsewhere in Asia, says senior FX dealer at major Japan bank. "There's no news behind this, just the desire of these players not to be behind the curve in case of any bigger short covering elsewhere." Says EUR/USD likely capped at 1.3700 vs last 1.3641; rise also pushes EUR/JPY higher, last 122.72, tips resistance at 123.00.(ATM)
0447 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD strength Tuesday could be trend for week, says RBC Capital Markets' Strategist Sue Trinh. Says Greece debt developments won't be as market moving as they have been in past month, taking weight off AUD, with RBA testimony before parliament a possible catalyst. "The real key for Aussie domestic market is (RBA Governor Glenn) Stevens' testimony on Friday and he is very hawkish. Very rarely does he say anything dovish and that should support the Aussie into the end of the week," says Trinh. AUD/USD recently at 0.8928 up from 0.8887 late Monday, surging past prior resistance of 0.8925, with Trinh saying next test for pair is 0.9050. (GER)
Stocks Will Hit New Highs by Summer: Trader
By: Robin Knight CNBC Assistant Web Producer
The economic recovery and improving employment picture in the U.S. will help to boost stocks and the market will push to new highs by the summer, Piers Curran, head of trading at Amplify Trading, told CNBC Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35363180
Charts: China Stocks to Fall for Several Months
By: CNBC.com
Now is not the time to put money into the Shanghai Composite Index as the Chinese stock market looks set to fall for the next several months, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist from Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35404152
What Could Push Sterling Down After Elections
By: Guy Johnson CNBC Anchor
The prospect of a hung parliament later this year is worrying the markets. The question is – why? The UK faces a number of possible outcomes at the next election but the two most likely ones, according to the latest polling, are either a clear win for the Conservative party or a dreaded hung parliament.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35403681
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