0928 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end down 0.1% at 2565.645 in moderate volume, with foreign fund selloff in banks, telecommunication and automotive blue chips keeping index in negative territory. Traders say overall sentiment cautious amid concerns over local politics. Trader at Reliance Securities tips index in 2560-2580 range tomorrow. Indonesia's Parliament yesterday recommended criminal investigation into country's top 2 economic reformers for authorizing bailout of a small lender in late 2008. "I think the market will continue to consolidate tomorrow to reflect caution," trader says. Foreigners net sellers of IDR199 billion worth of shares. Among decliners: heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) off 1.2% at IDR8,250, Bank Rakyat (BBRI.JK) down 2.0% at IDR7,250, while Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) down 1.6% at IDR1,860.
0858 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR tad lower at 9,275 late vs 9,285 late Wednesday with market listless amid lack of fresh cues; "there's nothing much going on," says dealer at foreign bank; tips pair to trade in 9,260-9,290 band Friday, likely following external cues. Bank Indonesia's decision to keep key rate at 6.50% expected by market, while investors not yet reacting to parliament's vote Wednesday to hold criminal investigation into 2008 bailout of Bank Century, which could place Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Vice President Boediono under pressure. ING sees rate hikes coming later than expected as inflation mild; eyes first 25-bp hike in 4Q vs previous forecast 1Q; says this will increase appetite for bonds, boosting rupiah; tips USD/IDR to head towards 9,100 over next three months.
0707 GMT [Dow Jones] Bank Indonesia leaves benchmark rate unchanged at 6.50%; again signaling likely to keep rate steady for next few months on benign inflation outlook. Analysts see main goal to keep rate anchored is to boost loan growth to help spur economic activities. "We note that Bank Indonesia is still busy lobbying for commercial banks to continue trimming their lending rates, thus, any rate hike at this time would seem clearly contrary to their efforts," IdeaGlobal's economist Gundy Cahyadi says. Although many still expect rate hikes to start late-2Q, they see possibility move might be pushed out if inflation remains within Bank Indonesia's 4%-6% year-end target.
0358 GMT [Dow Jones] Citi eyes possible macro implications after Indonesian lawmakers vote for criminal investigation into 2008 rescue of Bank Century, potentially placing Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Vice President and former central bank governor Boediono, under pressure. Tips pair to stay in office, market impact limited. But says government may resist cutting fuel, electricity subsidies this year, which will contain inflation but could just be postponing problems; Bank Indonesia's credibility may suffer, raising odds it'll be slow to hike rates (house eyes 75 bps hikes this year with risk tilted to less); government's subsidy burden may increase; reforms to revive investment may be slower, threatening growth prospects, longer term capital inflows
0912 GMT [Dow Jones] The USD is mostly higher and the EUR is sinking again as concerns over Greece continue to dominate market sentiment. Not only is the market waiting to see how the country's new bond offering fares but there remains considerable uncertainty over how much aid Germany and France will provide following Greece's latest austerity plan. Greece has warned that it is prepared to go to the IMF if needs be. In the background, confidence in the global recovery has taken a knocking with global equities sliding ahead of US payrolls on Friday. ECB and BOE policy meetings later in the day are also adding to the uncertainty, although neither are expected to result in interest rate moves. The USD is flat at Y88.43 while the EUR has fallen to $1.3662. The GBP is down at $1.5042.
0910 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD barely budges after Greece announces its in the market Thursday for a 10-year bond. EUR/USD trades at 1.3663, the closely watched 10-year Greek/German bond spreads widens a touch after the announcement.
0839 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD is showing signs of recovering, says Commerzbank's Karen Jones, and the break above 1.3693 will likely trigger a short-covering rally toward 1.3745-75, with failure likely around 1.3882. EUR/USD trades at 1.3651, and Jones favors buying this dip down to 1.3620, with a stop at 1.3585, to target 1.3845.
0805 GMT [Dow Jones] The doubling of the Swiss National Bank's foreign currency reserves last year is a clear signal of its determination to check the decline of EUR/CHF, says Commerzbank. The SNB said Thursday its reserves climbed to CHF94.68B, from CHF47.43B at end '08. "The SNB's tactic has worked very well as it has acted to weaken its own currency, and thus helped to fight deflation in Switzerland," says analyst Lutz Karpowitz. EUR/CHF currently at 1.4621.
0655 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI down 1.2% at 20,618.82, reversing early gains (intraday high at 21,000.13), with index dragged by falls in China Mobile (0941.HK) and H-share banks. CIMB notes while index has hit rebound target of 21,000-21,430 points, prices expected to reverse once this rebound exhausts itself. "For the time being, the stipulated rebound zone is still its immediate resistance targets." Adds, main channel support trend line is at 20,400; should this cave in, would mean next leg down has already begun. China Mobile down 2.5% at HK$72.80, after news CM to buy stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH). H-share banks lower on profit taking after recent gains, with ICBC (1398.HK) down 2.9% at HK$5.72, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) down 2.9% at HK$5.96. HKEx (0388.HK) down 2.8% at HK$129.10 after results. Volume modest at HK$40.17 billion.
(Dow Jones)--U.K. house prices fell in February for the first time since June last year, as an increase in the number of properties for sale coupled with the bad weather and changes in land-tax thresholds combined to weigh on the market, lender Halifax reported Thursday. The Halifax house price index showed prices fell 1.5% on the month and rose 4.5% compared with February 2009. The annual increase was the highest since January 2008. The February data compare with a 0.6% month-on-month gain in January and an annual gain of 3.6%.
0406 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.7% at 10,182.90 (off intraday low of 10,174.51), as stronger yen concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, with foreign investors sitting tight ahead of U.S. payrolls data due Friday, says Nikko Cordial senior strategist Tsuyoshi Kawata. Says market likely to lack momentum today and tomorrow before jobs data, with immediate support at 25-day moving average now tad below 10,200. Notes trading volume thin so far (under 950 million shares on TSE 1st section). Shippers (+1.8%) and select resource-related stocks remain relatively solid, but 26 of 33 Topix subindexes lower, with automakers, real estate stocks particularly weak. Toyota Motor (7203.TO) off 1.0% at Y3,385. Mitsubishi Motors (7211.TO) off 9.8% at Y119 after news that it and Peugeot Citroen
0357 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares lower midday, led by agriculture, environmental stocks in technical correction after yesterday's gains. Shanghai Composite Index down 1.0% at 3064.76; support at 3050. "The correction in these currently popular stocks is necessary for a healthy market, but investor interest in renewable energy stocks is likely to be retained in the coming months because of favorable government policies," says Zhou Lin from Huatai Securities. Jiangsu Sunshine Co.(600220.SH) off 0.3% at CNY6.84, Hunan Jinjian Cereals Industry Co. (600127) down 4.4% at CNY8.18. Shenzhen Composite Index down 1.2% at 1179.75.
0259 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia government bonds, IDR to benefit as rate hikes likely later than anticipated, ING says; notes inflation below Bank Indonesia's 4%-6% target range since June 2009 (February CPI +3.81% on year), February core inflation of +3.88% on year was record low. House recently pushed back forecast for first 25bp rate hike to 4Q10 from 1Q10; expects BI to leave key rate at 6.50% today. "As in Korea, scaling back aggressive forecasts of BI tightening has been a theme in Indonesia, where it's also bullish for government bonds, which is bullish for IDR." Tips 10-year FR31 benchmark yield to test 9% over next 3 months vs latest 9.54% ask; USD/IDR to move toward 9,100 vs latest 9,280.(RLC)
0422 GMT [Dow Jones] Gold looks well supported with sovereign risk issues still making headlines but relationship with EUR/USD could be key going forward, says David Barclay, commodity strategist at Standard Chartered. Notes correlation has disappeared recently with euro weakness having no negative impact on gold price - question is if euro turns around as Greece debt fears recede will traditional positive correlation re-establish itself? Says if it does could be very bullish for gold. Either way, he says key resistance at $1,150/oz where scrap supply might increase from Middle East markets, breach of that level would be technically bullish. Adds CFTC data shows speculative long positioning in Comex futures not excessive. "The shakeout from $1,226 (December high) has been quite a good thing for the market," he says. Spot gold at $1,135.50/oz, down $4.10 since New York close.
0249 GMT [Dow Jones] LME nickel lower at $22,550/ton, down $290 vs PM kerb after another leg higher during current rally overnight. LME nickel rally based on stock falls, indicating stainless steel demand recovery. Nickel likely to stay well supported while rest of LME board firm, and nickel stock outflows continue, says Sydney-based analysts. However, market has a lot of idled production capacity, and news from labor talks at from Vale's (VALE) Sudbury operation in Canada over the weekend making good progress, further talks scheduled this week amid media blackout. Workers at Sudbury have been on strike since June last year.
Gold May Rise to $1,162, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gold, trading near a six-week high, may climb toward $1,162 an ounce should prices hold above $1,135, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMbGEaYyklY4
Oil May Rise Above $83 After ‘Mood Swings’: Technical Analysis
Crude oil is poised to break out of recent sideways trading pattern and may rise above $83 a barrel, near a 14-month high reached in January, according to National Australia Bank Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aybncw3a_Axw
S&P 500 Hits Fibonacci Resistance: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed in its second attempt to recoup half its bear-market loss, staying below a level that might herald more gains, according to some analysts who follow the Fibonacci system of forecasting prices.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anVdgdufWgwc
Gasoline Poised for Surge to $2.38 a Gallon: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gasoline is poised for a rally to $2.38 a gallon by March 15 after reaching a 16-month high yesterday, according to a technical analysis by Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Inc. in Chicago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aorkkqee8h78
UBS Says Sell Euro Before Drop to $1.3405: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the euro against the dollar as a “bearish” pattern predicts further declines to Fibonacci support at $1.3405, UBS AG said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8jq4ehfpn1M
China Yuan One-Off Gain May Spur Stocks, Goldman Says
(Bloomberg) -- A “one-off” appreciation of the Chinese currency may trigger a rally in stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNT7dg_PZR8Y
Halftime Report: Bet On A Commodities Comeback?
By: Lee Brodie Producer
The S&P traded higher on Wednesday after new economic data suggested good things about the recovery.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35689494
Economy to Lose Steam—Expect W-Shaped Recovery: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Expect a W-shaped recovery going forward, said Robert Ward, director of global forecasting at The Economist's Intelligence Unit. He shared his market outlooks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35687624
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