Update Daily Investment News

Indonesian Stocks May Extend Gains as Overseas Buyers Return
(Bloomberg) -- Overseas buyers may return to Indonesian stocks this month and drive the benchmark index 17 percent higher in 2010, lured by gains in the rupiah and profit growth, according to the nation’s second-best performing fund.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHrwssSEwlfg

0324 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares +0.3% at 2573.961 in light volume after touching 2582.692 intraday high, helped by steady IDR, gains across regional markets; resistance eyed at 2590. "As expected, swift profit-taking by local funds offset gains of the main index," says trader at Reliance Securities. Adds, overall sentiment remains cautious due to growing political uncertainty after Indonesia's Parliament recommended criminal investigation into country's top two economic reformers for authorizing a bailout of a small lender in late 2008. Among gainers: Indosat (ISAT.JK) +1.8% at IDR5,550 after ADRs in NY rose 3.0%, Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) +1.1% at IDR4,500 on bargain-buying. Profit-taking hits cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), last down 0.7% at IDR27,500.

Malaysia Raises Benchmark Rate Ahead of Indonesia
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia moved ahead of Indonesia to become the second Southeast Asian nation to raise interest rates, saying it wants to avoid “financial imbalances” as the economy emerges from last year’s recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_itILyrVuSo

Elliott Wave: Robert Prechter Says Equities to Drop, Invest in Cash: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4I4Zdr07.n8

0417 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei trims losses, with some investors beginning to close positions ahead of weekend; index now up 1.8% at 10,323.30, down from midday close of 10,355.63. While report of BOJ's further policy easing continues to support sentiment, many players remain skeptical about Nikkei's further rise to 10,500 level and beyond before expiry of March futures contracts (next Friday, March 12), traders say. "It's still possible for the Nikkei to creep up to 10,500, but strong gains will be difficult before SQ (special quotation)" for settling March futures, says Chuo Securities trader. 32/33 Topix subindexes remain higher; exporters like Sony (6758.TO), +2.9% at Y3,190, still holding onto morning gains, heavily weighted Fast Retailing (9983.TO) top Nikkei driver, +3.0% at Y16,230, while tech issues Fanuc (6954.TO) +2.1% at Y8,820, Kyocera (6971.TO) +1.9% at Y8,090, Canon (7751.TO), +2.7% at Y3,865 also leading market. Marine transports, real estate sectors top sectoral gainers on board. Topix also trimming gains; now up 1.1% at 907.70.

0453 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +0.9% at 20,754.30 midday, but yet to recover yesterday's 1.4% fall, as China banks remain weak overall as HSI rebalancing effective Monday to result in lower weightings for these banks. Jamie Coutts at BGC Securities says as critical 21,000 resistance level has not been convincingly broken recently, HSI still has bearish tilt, 20,600/20,800 level which acted as resistance in February may now provide short-term support. Says he will short this market if HSI breaks and closes below 20,600 (yesterday's close at 20,575) with downside target of 19,423 and then 18,600; but if rally takes it back through 21,000 and it closes above for 2 consecutive days, then all bets are off and would change his bias to neutral/bullish with upside target of 22,672 and 23,099. Among H-share banks, Bank of Communications (3328.HK) down 0.8% at HK$8.20, ICBC (1398.HK) +0.3% at HK$5.77, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) +0.5% at HK$5.99. Volume modest at HK$32.75 billion.

0444 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.8% at 1630.34 in light volume, led by shipping firms, shipbuilders, following 7.2% jump in BDI. "But it's hard to say there's any clear trading pattern in the market....Buying appetite seems to be receding whenever the index reaches 1630," says Park Seok-hyun at KTB Securities; expects Kospi to hover around 1630 rest of today while investors expected to remain cautious before U.S. job data due tonight. STX Pan Ocean (028670.SE) +5.4% at KRW12,750, Korea Line (005880.SE) +4.5% at KRW45,400, Hyundai Heavy (009540.SE) +2.1% at KRW218,500. Bellwether Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +1.5% at KRW772,000 after falling yesterday. 

0326 GMT [Dow Jones] AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says Australian shares are set to continue to rise but that market conditions will be volatile. Says market movements are set to be more constrained and choppy than the strong rebound seen from the bottom of the market. "However, further gains in shares over the year ahead are likely to be underpinned by the continuing recovery in corporate profits, still-low global interest rates, strong growth in the emerging world and the fact that there is still a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that can come into share markets," Oliver says. Expects further gains in commodity prices and says takeover activity is also starting to pick up again. Says AMP's target for the All Ordinaries for the end of 2010 remains 5600. All Ords latest up 0.4% at 4774.6, S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 4769.1.

0326 GMT [Dow Jones] H-share index +0.4% at 11,825.08 on rebound after yesterday's 2.3% decline, but upside capped with weakness in China banks, as HSI weighting method change will take effect Monday resulting in lowering China banks' weighting in benchmark index. Core Pacific Yamaichi notes H-share index trades at about 10X FY10 P/E, valuation is attractive. "We are likely to see another round of corporate earnings upgrade following the results season from March to April." Tips near-term, H-shares likely to be affected by NPC meeting conclusions and policymakers' comments on money supply, inflation, home prices. Suggest buy China banks, China properties given current undemanding valuations. Tips H-share index to be in 11,200-12,400 range next week. Among banks, Bank of China (3988.HK) +0.3% at HK$3.90, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) down 0.2% at HK$5.95, ICBC (1398.HK) +0.2% at HK$5.76.

0319 GMT [Dow Jones] Yesterday's drop in JPY 3-month Libors (now below USD's for first time since late August) may provide an added boost to USD/JPY, says David Forrester, FX strategist with Barclays Capital. "USD/JPY is the most sensitive cross to interest rate movements at the moment," he adds. Says, with the end of Fed's asset purchases looming at month-end, USD rates are bound to rise, while JPY rates should remain flat at best; "we think the market hasn't yet priced in this situation." BarCap tips USD/JPY at 95 by end-June. Last at 89.19 vs 89.07 late in NY trade.

0406 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's upside likely limited despite Nikkei report that BOJ will likely consider more monetary easing through April, including expansion of fund-provision measures introduced in December, say senior dealers at major banks in Tokyo. "The dollar/yen rose a tad on this report this morning, but that was mostly due to yen-selling by non-Japanese players. Japanese names were quiet about it," says Yuji Saito, head of FX at Credit Agricole. "Yields in Japan may fall on any BOJ easing measures. But Japanese investors, amid the time of high risk aversion, don't have alternative investment vehicles overseas. They would probably end up parking their funds in the yen." USD/JPY last at 89.24, Shinkin Central Bank's Jun Kato says USD/JPY topside heavy around 90.50.

0313 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD drifting slightly ahead of release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in global day, movement expected after release, says RBC Capital Markets currency strategist Sue Trinh; "I would say we would get some knee-jerk reaction depending on whether its stronger or weaker than expected." Adds ultimately main focus on how Greece's sovereign debt issue unfolds. Says Kiwi specifically being affected by interest rate expectations; "Kiwi has come under attack over the last week particularly against the Australian dollar as expectations for a RBNZ monetary policy statement have gained ground." NZD/USD last 0.6880 vs 0.6860 early; Trinh tips support at 0.6850 with initial resistance 0.6920

0259 GMT [Dow Jones] JGB market likely to start expecting "subsequent, continued" easing by BOJ, says Barclays Capital chief strategist Chotaro Morita; expects BOJ to expand fund-provision facility introduced in December as alternative to special lending program set to expire at end March. Adds "when the BOJ decided to suspend the special corporate finance operations last fall, the rationale was to normalize the emergency liquidity supply measures introduced to deal with the financial crisis and the fact that it is now thinking at all about replacement measures suggests a change from its stance at that time." Says market players not sure if additional easing due to price falls, JPY appreciation or political pressure, but at least downward pressure on prices and demand for more loosening from government expected to continue for a while.(

0221 GMT [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital FX analyst David Forrester recommends selling AUD/NZD around current levels, last at 1.3100; house estimates AUD/NZD could fall below 1.3000 in near term, with decline to 1.2200 possible in coming 3-6 months mainly as NZ economy well positioned to recover. Notes it's more likely for RBNZ to show that inflation will quickly approach top of its 1%-3% inflation targeting band in its next Monetary Policy Statement due Thursday, which may put upward pressure on NZD. Adds NZ's export commodity prices have recovered with NZ having sizeable exposure to Australia, emerging nations in Asia. House also recommends selling AUD/USD above 0.9000, vs last 0.8998, as Fed, PBOC may begin raising rates in 2H.

0219 GMT [Dow Jones] Global bond funds posted their biggest weekly inflows in more than a decade while global equity funds saw the heaviest inflows since Oct. 2007, according to data tracker EPFR. IN the week ended March 3, investors pulled some US$30B out of money market funds and put US$5.68B into bond funds and US$2.3B into equity funds. Emerging markets bonds funds took in US$3B. Developed market equity funds received US$2.8B while global emerging markets equity funds saw modest outflows. Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and EMEA equity funds saw inflows of US$42M to US$169M.

Yuan Options Most Expensive as China Pledges No Rise
(Bloomberg) -- Options traders are more bullish on the yuan than any other currency as they bet that growing exports and accelerating inflation will overcome China’s vows to maintain a 20-month dollar peg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWEtrHfHV0HA&pos=5

Kospi May Be ‘Volatile’ in Next 3 Months, UBS Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korean stocks may be “volatile” in the next three months as the economy is likely to peak in the first quarter, UBS AG said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAdbQDrsRCbo

Dollar May Fall to 15-Year Low of 84.83 Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken to 84.83 yen, a 15-year low reached in November, Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTcapWcxUrrQ

N.Y. Natural Gas Poised to Rebound Above $5: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures may rise above $5 per million British thermal units in New York after prices bounced off the lower Bollinger Band, according to a technical analysis by Tom Orr, research director at Weeden & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoSp1WtTTNIY

U.S. Stocks to Extend Gains, Acampora Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks may add to gains that pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up as much as 70 percent from its 2009 low, said technical analyst Ralph Acampora.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCZvn66XPDkQ

BlackRock’s Doll Says China Stocks Aren’t a Bubble, Sees Gains
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks aren’t a bubble and will gain by the end of the year as the government takes measures to prevent the economy from overheating, said Bob Doll, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment officer for global equities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au8BdqAkcMZU

Hong Kong’s Economy Overtaken by Shanghai in 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5kRCjqVUzIs

Oppenheimer Doesn’t See Emerging Stock ‘Bubble’
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Peter Oppenheimer said he doesn’t see a “bubble” in emerging-market stocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atdnQk6elilc

Forget US Stocks—Buy Gold Every Month ‘Forever’: Faber
Published: Thursday, 4 Mar 2010 | 2:52 PM ET By: CNBC.com

Investors should buy some gold every month “forever” or look to emerging market stocks rather than US shares, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35707348

What Must You Know About Friday’s Jobs Number?
By: Lee Brodie Producer
It's the number every trader's waiting for. What is the jobs report going to tell us Friday?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35697833

Harumdana Berjangka Daily Forex Newsletter 05-03
EUR-USD
(-30p+120p) Euro menunjukkan signal positif dari formasi candle long bullish (signal bullish continuation), meski berada di bawah 1.3720 (channel top), diatas 5 & 10 MA yang crossover, volume menurun, membentuk pola descending triangle, didukung ADX flat (momentum kenaikan stabil), stochastic crossing up, MACD bearish, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Trend Euro bearish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah. Hitungan EW menunjukkan formasi bearish continuation dalam koreksi E/IV dalam (4) selama tidak tembus 1.3730 target extend ke 1.2870 (238.2 FR)/1.3425 (161.8 FR). Buy 1.3500 & 1.3430 target 1.3690 stop 1.3395, sell 1.3645 target 1.3500 stop diatas 1.3710, buy break 1.3740 target 1.3850 stop 30p, sell 1.3850 target 1.37, buy 1.3590 target 1.3710 stop 30p.
USD-JPY
(-50p) USDJPY memberikan signal positif dari pola long bullish (momentum penurunan terbatas) dan ditutup di bawah 5 & 10-day MA (88.91-89.33) mendukung konsolidasi 88-91. Indikator ADX terkoreksi (momentum penurunan melemah), MACD bearish, stochastic crossing up, mendukung perkiraan potensi rebound terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan USDJPY berada dalam wave koreksi v/C dalam (C), menggagalkan kenaikan ke target 92.50/93.70 untuk target 88.50/86.58. Resistance 89.60/90.00, support 88.40/88.00. hold buy 89.20 target 90.50 stop 50p, buy 88.40 & 87.60 target 90.00 stop 60p, hold sell 88.65 target 87.50 stop 50p, buy 87.50 target 90.00 stop 50p. Sell 90.50 target 89.30 stop 30p, buy 86.50 & 85.35 target 90.00
GBP-USD
(+100p, closed sell 1.5130) GBP menunjukkan pola candle dark cloud cover (momentum kenaikan terbatas), masih berada di bawah channel top 1.5125, 5 & 10-day MA menunjukkan crossing down didukung indikator ADX terkoreksi (momentum penurunan melemah), stochastic oversold, MACD bearish, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dan mendukung strategy sell on rally dikisaran 1.53-1.53. Hitungan EW menunjukkan wave koreksi v/C telah berakhir, saat ini dalam proses wave iii/3 dalam (1) mendorong target 1.5140 (trendline)/1.5270 (50.0% FR) selama 1.3781 tetap bertahan. Buy break 1.5150 target 1.5270 stop 30p, sell 1.5270 target 1.5000 stop 30p, buy 1.5020 target 1.5130 stop 30p, sell 1.5125 target 1.4900 stop 30p,  sell break 1.5000 target 1.4800 stop 50p
AUD-USD
(+50p, closed sell 0.9050)AUD menunjukkan signal negatif dari indikasi pola candle long opening black marubozu (momentum kenaikan melemah) dan penutupan dibawah middle channel line di 0.9060, didukung ADX terkoreksi (momentum kenaikan melemah), MACD netral & stochastic crossing buy mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan wave motive iii/2 dalam C? dapat mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas di kisaran resistance 0.9100/0.9160. Resistance 0.9070/0.9160, support di 0.9000/0.930. Sell break 0.8850  target 0.8650 stop 50p, sell 0.9055/0.9075 & sell 0.9120 target 0.8930 stop 50p, buy 0.8870 & 0.8930 target 0.9000 stop 30p, buy 0.8770 target 0.9000 stop 50p, Sell 0.9200 target 0.9000 stop 50p.

Daily Forex Technicals |    Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3544(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3523, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3500. Break of the latter would result in 1.3472. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3457. Continuation will give 1.3429.
Today's resistance: - 1.3641, 1.3694 and 1.3736(main). Break would give 1.3756, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3771. Break of the latter would result in 1.3795. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3816. Continuation will give 1.3857.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 88.92, 88.67 and 88.22(main). Break would bring 87.95, where correction is possible. Then 87.56, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 87.27. If a strong impulse, we would see 87.08. Continuation would give 86.77 and 86.40.
Today's resistance: - 89.58(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 89.77, where also a correction may be. Then 90.42. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.90. Continuation will give 91.14.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10351.00 and 10383.16(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10361.20, where correction also can be. Then follows 10327.50. Be there a strong impulse, we 10290.65. Continuation will bring 10260.10.
Today's resistance: - 10462.90(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10483.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10526.47, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10547.66. Continuation would bring 10574.11 and 10603.12.