0336 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian shares tad down, with most stocks viewed as overbought after recent rally; main index down 0.3% at 2662.763, off 2682.392 high earlier today; decliners lead gainers 69 to 48 as investors taking profit on stocks which staged strong gains recently; Weighing on index, benchmark Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 0.6% at IDR8,550; Bumi (BUMI.JK) down 1% at IDR2,450; Indo Tambang (ITMG.JK) down 0.6% at IDR3,2700; Indika (INDY.JK) down 1.1% at IDR2,250; Meanwhile, property company Bakrieland (ELTY.JK) +7.8% at IDR275 as it will get fresh cash from planned $150 million bond sale. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0428 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.5% at Y10,613.49, trimming early gains as yen firms against dollar, euro after stronger than expected China Feb. CPI prompting players to take profits from exporters. Still, index likely to conserve most gains. "Even if some investors try to test the downside, we don't see big follow-through selling," Mizuho Investors Securities trading information manager Teruhisa Ishikawa says. Expectations for recovering earnings next FY dissuading active selling, he says. 27/33 Topix subindexes remain higher; Sony (6758.TO) up 1.2% at Y3,415 after ending morning session up 2.7% at Y3,465. Canon (7751.TO) up 0.3% at Y4,010 vs morning close of Y4,040. (yoshio.takahashi@dowjones.com)
0449 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI snaps 4-day winning streak, down 0.4% at 21,134.22 midday, as higher-than-expected February China CPI reading rekindles concerns over an interest rate hike there; still, modest volume of HK$33.45 billion, modest fall so far suggests investor sentiment not too concerned. For Asia-Pacific markets, Goldman Sachs believes flat index misrepresents improved fundamentals; believes "a risk-on period is coming, but investors need to take positions before all lights turn green." Citic Pacific (0267.HK) +3.1% at HK$19.56, Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) +1.7% at HK$15.46 - both continuing post-results outperformance; Swire (0019.HK) +0.3% at HK$91.85 with FY results just out now better than expected. Li & Fung (0494.HK) resumes uptrend, +1.7% at HK$39.70. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0415 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% at 4808.0, sets intraday low of 4805.4 as offshore equities slip in wake of stronger-than-expected China economic data, which could prompt China to take further steps to curb excessively strong economic growth. China's Shanghai Composite is down about 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5%. Forex markets following a similar path, with AUD/USD down 0.4% at 0.9119 and EUR/USD down 0.2% at A$1.3634. Weak close for S&P/ASX could signal the start of a pullback after virtually unbroken rise from 4593.3 to 4840.1 in the past 9 days. Potential support lies at the former resistance level of 4717.5, according to Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis. (david.rogers1@dowjones.com)
0350 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares down midday, reversing earlier gains after higher-than-expected February CPI renewed concerns over fresh credit tightening. Shanghai Composite Index down 0.6% at 3029.39, support at psychological 3000 level. "The inflation data is a major bugbear for now, but downside is limited because the policy direction is still unclear," says Shen Yang from Orient Securities. Among actives, China Vanke Co. (000002.SZ) off 0.5% at CNY9.43, Zijin Mining Group Co. (601899.SH) declines 1.3% at CNY8.36. Shenzhen Composite Index down 1.1% at 1152.65. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0330 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi turns lower, down 0.2% at 1659.49 in light volume as China reports higher-than-expected February CPI, renewing concerns of further credit tightening. Park Jung-seop at Daishin Securities says this "can spur concerns China may increase loan interest rates soon," on top of series of recent economic data indicating solid economic growth in China; but thinks China unlikely to hike official rate immediately because "the number is still below the upper limit of China's inflation target range." Expects choppy session in afternoon, Kospi likely to be swayed more by program trading given simultaneous expiry of options, futures today. BOK governor's post-meeting comments unlikely to move market much as investors more concerned about candidate for next central bank chief. Hyundai Motor (005380.SE) down 2.6% at KRW111,500, Kia Motors (000270.SE) down 1.6% at KRW21,850 on profit-taking. But Korea Exchange Bank (004940.SE) +4.8% at KRW14,100 on M&A hopes. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Prospect of more tightening measures from Beijing following stronger-than-expected China economic data prompts investors to lighten positions on Singapore shares after early gains driven by Wall Street's modest overnight advance. STI off 0.1% at 2858.58 midday vs high of 2875.21 (+0.5%); likely to hold above this week's low of 2820, with Jan. 21 high of 2890 expected to offer resistance. Market breadth tad negative vs four gainers for each decliner in early trade. "I'm quite worried about the economic data, especially the inflation news. There's still opportunity to go long in the market but I wouldn't be aggressive," says technical analyst at Singapore brokerage. Shares of companies deemed at risk of China's inflationary pressures among notable decliners: Golden Agri-Resources (E5H.SG) off 3.4% at S$0.575, Wilmar (F34.SG) off 1.3% at S$6.77, Yanlord (Z25.SG) off 1.5% at S$2.01. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)
0316 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD likely to remain under pressure after sharp fall in wake of "dovish" RBNZ policy statement, says Stonebrige Group associate director Graham Parlane. "I would suggest it (Kiwi) can go lower." Says near-term support sitting at 0.6960, with key support at 0.6840 vs last 0.6984. "They (RBNZ) were somewhat dovish on the degree of rate rises ahead. They will start raising rates around the middle of the year but a reasonably early start will see them doing less work overall." Notes implied yields in bill futures fell with NZD following suit. Adds RBNZ Governor Bollard made clear attempt to talk NZD down during parliamentary testimony, saying cash rate peak will be less than previous cycles, NZ yields won't be conducive for carry trades. Parlane says NZD losing ground vs AUD, GBP, JPY, which normally implies lower vs USD. (simon.louisson@dowjones.com)
0311 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley says China's stronger-than-expected data (including today's CPI +2.7% on-year vs +2.4% Dow Jones poll, Jan-Feb industrial output +20.7% on-year vs +19.5% poll) suggest another policy tightening coming soon. "While we continue to believe that policy normalization/tightening should be gradual and measured this year, another reserve requirement ratio hike is likely imminent, while the first interest rate hike of 27 bps should come as early as April, followed by 2 more hikes in 3Q and 4Q," says Morgan Stanley's Wang Qing. "Nevertheless, we stand by our call that renminbi appreciation will not resume until 2H10." (joy.shaw@dowjones.com)
0241 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY, EUR/JPY falling on selling from short-term players, as stronger than expected China CPI for February (+2.7% vs +2.4% market expectations) raises speculation over further China tightening, which could ease recent rapid growth, make investors hesitant over taking risks, says Japan bank dealer; but adds "since Asian stocks haven't reacted that much to Chinese data, their impact (in the FX market) may not last long." Tips support for USD/JPY at 90.10 vs now at 90.33, EUR/JPY support at 122.70 vs 123.20.
0444 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY may fall to 89.50 if U.S. weekly jobless claims data (due 1330 GMT) disappoint, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields lower, says Tokyo dealer. But even if other data including U.S. industrial output show weakness in coming week, dealer says pair unlikely to fall far past 89.00 because of growing speculation that BOJ will ease monetary policy further. U.S. jobless claims likely to have increased by 460,000 last week, according to Dow Jones poll of economists. Focus also on New York Fed President Dudley's speech in London due later in day. USD/JPY last at 90.34. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
Buy Asia Stocks Before ‘Green’ Light, Goldman Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy Asian stocks outside Japan after valuations dropped and before sentiment strengthens further, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awci.w6js2I8
U.S Stocks to Outperform for Several More Months, Allianz Says (Bloomberg) -- The outperformance of U.S. stocks should continue for several more months as the nation’s economy recovers from its worst contraction since the Great Depression, according to Allianz Investment Management.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aREmxSjLOj_A
S&P 500 to Rally Into April, Breadth Shows: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may continue its rally into April as measures based on the ratio of rising to falling stocks shows the market “structure remains bullish,” according to technical analysts at UBS AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJD6eZI6aRLw
Pimco’s El-Erian Says Public Finance Shock May Deepen
(Bloomberg) -- Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose company runs the world’s biggest mutual fund, said deteriorating public finances around the world may affect the global economy more than is currently realized.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq6T0Je.5jYc&pos=3
Buy Pound Before Fibonacci Rally to $1.57: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy the British pound against the dollar as it rebounds from a Fibonacci level and signals a possible “good rally” in the U.K. currency to $1.57, according to Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYhzaieE4dCA
Equity Correlation May Break Loonie’s Range: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian currency may make a sustained break out of a five-month trading range against its U.S. counterpart if stocks close above highs set in January, said Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s biggest lender.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atHfkIG1pMvA
Dollar Is ‘Critically Poised’ Against Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rise against the yen should it break a key resistance level at 92.55, Commerzbank AG said, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayh2j4.VbWgU
Thai Stocks to Rebound on ‘Tweezers Bottom’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s stocks will rebound from their longest losing streak in a month after a “tweezers bottom” formation appeared in a candlestick chart, according to Country Group Securities Pcl.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqedhuKmVvO4
Sovereign Funds Rise to $3.51 Trillion, Preqin Says
(Bloomberg) -- Sovereign wealth funds’ total combined assets have climbed 9 percent from a year ago to $3.51 trillion, Preqin Ltd. said in an e-mailed press release.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAuKDPFji84A
Indian Stocks are Better Long-Term Bet, Franklin Says
(Bloomberg) -- India offers better long-term returns on stocks than China given the outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings, according to Franklin Templeton Investments.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJvGDThILpX4
Investors Turn Bullish on Stocks as Concern About Greece Wanes
(Bloomberg) -- Investor confidence returned to stocks from New York to Paris to Tokyo on growing signs that the budget crisis in Greece won’t derail the global economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNvRz7fBXoyA
Obama Defies Pessimists as Rising Economy Converges With Stocks
(Bloomberg) -- The political consensus may be that President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy has been weak. The judgment of money in all its forms has been overwhelmingly positive, and that may be the more lasting appraisal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aeSenIUvpSK0
Economy 'Far too Close' to Double Dip: Roubini
By: Antonia Oprita
Poor economic data in the US coupled with Europe's debt crisis are contributing to an increase of the risk of the US economy going through a double-dip recession, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2007 financial crisis, wrote in a research paper.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35792768
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