Friday, November 4, 2011

When You'll See The Next Real Crisis?...Be Prepare & Fasten Your Seatbelt!!!

Credit Suisse: The three biggest risks to the economy now 
These won’t come as a big surprise to regular readers, but Credit Suisse provided their three biggest risks to the economy currently.  Their comments add some nice perspective to the three risks that I have been discussing for the last few months:

Making Sense Of The Chaos: Europe's Calendar Of Events For The Rest Of November
So here are the main events:
    * Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote.
    * Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers. EFSF issuance expected within two weeks of this date. IMF/EU officials start second quarterly evaluation of Portugal’s bailout program implementation. Should also last two weeks.
    * Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
    * Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
    * Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
    * Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
    * Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
    * Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
    * Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
    * Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
    * Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
    * Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
    * Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/zero coupon bond auction.
    * Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote.

Crisis? What Crisis? You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet!
And the situation is about to get even worse. According to the latest report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) a double-dip jobs recession is about to start and social strife is about to break out like a disease.
Timothy Bancroft-Hinchey

The Next Stage Of The European Debt Crisis; Towards Global Financial Collapse? - Bob Chapman
Those who believe the European crisis is over are mistaken. The dislocation will continue as their economies slow and political, social and economic events converge into further crisis. The most glaring problem is the banks only taking a 50% loss on Greek bonds. The loss should have been 75% or even 80%. There is absolutely no way Greece can overcome that burden in a slowing European economy and an enraged population. They are still striking and demonstrating and they will continue even under a new government.

Market Overvaluation Times 4
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated yesterday:
● The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
● The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing
    10-year earnings as the divisor
● The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the
    market divided by its replacement cost
● The relationship of the S&P Composite to
    a regression trendline

Stock Market Entering the Flash Crash Zone
The VIX completed a 47% retracement of its impulse off its Master Cycle low at 24.44.  It now has the ability to rally through the end of December, according to the predominant cycle patterns.  It is probable the VIX may put in its 13-year cycle high in December, or possibly early next year.  This is something that I have been saying for the better part of the last year.

Technical Gold: Ready to Break The $1900’s?
It’s been several weeks since I’ve written about Gold and we have had a wild ride since the 1910-1920 highs in August.  At the time as we approached I forecasted a major correction was nigh and we were shorting the rise from 1862-1910 prior to a huge $208 drop that took place over just a few days.  We covered our short at $1725 and then Gold rallied back to a double top at $1920 and then fell back to $1531.

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