(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may decline as U.S. fuel stockpiles increase and refiners prepare to idle units for seasonal maintenance. Sixteen of 42 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 38 percent, said futures will drop through Sept. 25. Fourteen respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and 12 said prices will be little changed. Last week, 45 percent of analysts said oil would fall.
Oil futures touched $73.16 yesterday, the highest since Aug. 31, as the dollar dropped against the euro. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Ample U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, have tempered price increases. “The run-up this week was based on financials, specifically weakness of the dollar, and is likely to be undone next week by poor fundamentals,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 2.24 million barrels to 167.8 million last week, the highest since January 1983 and 24 percent more than the five-year average, the Energy Department said on Sept. 16. Gasoline inventories rose 547,000 barrels to 207.7 million, 4 percent greater than average.
Demand for crude oil may drop as refiners idle units to perform repairs. Companies tend to schedule maintenance for September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil consumption increases. Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.18, or 4.6 percent, to $72.47 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 62 percent this year and has slipped 51 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, 2008.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. The results were: RISE NEUTRAL FALL 14 12 16
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