Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rises further to as high as 66.36 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.66 minor support holds. Current rally is expected to extend further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.29) next. On the downside, below 64.66 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 59.61 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
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