0525 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian shares extend gains strongly before midday break, as investors grab blue chips, dealers say; main index +2.3% at 2731,428, with 143 gainers, 39 decliners; volume robust at 3.4 billion shares worth IDR3 trillion. "I think our market got a boost from Wall Street's gain, which has also driven other regional bourses higher," says Sucorinvest's director Adrian Rusmana; Telkom (TLKM.JK) +1.2% at IDR8,450, Bumi (BUMI.JK) +1.0% at IDR2,525, Indosat (ISAT.JK) +3.3% at IDR6,250, Astra International (ASII.JK) +3.6% at IDR40,050; 2660-2708 range tipped for afternoon session. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0903 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR bounces up from intraday low on profit taking after massive selloff earlier in day; pair now at 9,110 vs 9,165 late Monday, but off 9,097 intraday low. "Capital inflows into the local stocks and bonds dragged the dollar lower," dealer says; Bank Indonesia was not heard buying pair in market; 9,100-9,130 range tipped for tomorrow. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government local bonds higher as Fed set to keep rates low for while; buying mostly in long tenors, dealers say. "Investors are buying the long tenors as they lagged behind recent gains in the short, and the medium tenors," dealer says; adds last week's upgrade in Indonesia's ratings by S&P seems to be still helping sentiment on long-term bonds. Yield of FR24 (due 2023) down at 9.47% vs 9.71% Monday; FR44 (due 2024) down at 9.74% vs 10.00%; FR40 (due 2026) down at 9.85% vs 10.06%, and FR75 (due 2028) down at 10.23% vs 10.39%; dealers expect bond market to extend gains tomorrow, especially long ends. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0413 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.4% at 10,768.63 after reaching 10,831.57 soon after BOJ announces further monetary policy easing steps by expanding fund-supplying program, market analysts say. "The central bank's decision is what has been expected...this is giving investors a relief, but they may start taking profits as the big news is (now) out," says Shinichiro Matsushita, market analyst at Daiwa Securities. Nikkei may stay between 10,700-10,850, he says. Such sectors as real estate and consumer finance will likely stay stronger mid-term as easy monetary policy, aimed at fighting deflation, boosts liquidity, enabling consumers to buy condos and increase general spending, he adds. Topix onsumer lending subindex leading board with 2.0% gain, real estate subindex also up 0.7%; Orix (8591.TO) up 2.8% to Y7,430. Mitsui Fudosan (8801.TO) up 0.9% to Y1,643. (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0420 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI extends gains, now +1.6% at 21,350.23, though size of gains not noteworthy, index breaches extremely narrow 21,000-21,300 band held for past 7 sessions (though break yet to be confirmed with a close above range). Technicals likely to attract more buyers as such a break usually implies extension of gains or losses (depending on direction of break); aided by likely short-covering or investors cutting position on longs. Technical break usually accompanied by higher volume; today's market volume picks up to HK$29.69 billion with about half an hour until midday close, already above HK$28.81 billion at midday yesterday. 42 of 43 blue chips now higher; those rising at least 3% include HK & China Gas (0003.HK), SHK Properties (0016.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), China Merchants (0144.HK), Esprit (0330.HK). (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0456 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +1.3% at 1668.66 in light volume on hefty stock, futures buying by foreigners; led by renewed hopes for global liquidity to stay ample for a while after Fed's reassurance to keep low rate for "extended period," appointment of "government-friendly" OECD ambassador Kim Choong-soo as BOK chief, says Bae Sung-young at Hyundai Securities; expects Kospi's uptrend remain intact, but looks hard to break above year's high around 1700 as there's still uncertainty about global economic outlook. Techs highs, tracking U.S. peers after recent weakness; Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +2.9% at KRW787,000, LG Display (034220.SE) +3.4% at KRW38,000 on foreign buying; Woori Finance (053000.SE) +4.8% at KRW15,200, outperforming peers on hopes for high profit earnings generated from Samsung Life Insurance IPO in May following Korea Life's (088350.SE), last +2.6% at KRW8,930, successful debut on Kospi today, says Ko Yong-uk at Daewoo Securities; notes Woori Bank has stake in Samsung. Also cites expectations Woori to make substantial earnings from sale of its stake in Hynix Monday. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie says its 12-month Topix target remains 1,050, which discounts the slow recovery cycle to FY ending March 2012. Topix at 1,050 correlates with 19X house's FY ending March 2011 expected EPS of Y55, and 16X its FY ending March 2012 expected EPS of Y65. Expects FY ending March 2013 Topix earnings to return to their FY ending 2006-2008 high plateau of about Y75. "The Japanese bull is enjoying climbing the hill, but is still dependent on global markets to lead the way. Our base case remains domestic policy passivity." Nikkei 225 Stock Average now +0.6% at 10,787.46, +2.3% for 2010; Topix +0.5% at 943.04; +3.9% for 2010. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0443 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares extend gains as solid rises for key regional bourses underpin initial boost from hopes U.S. interest rates to stay low for some time. STI +0.6% at 2,914.60 at midday vs morning low of 2,896.57 (flat) with resistance tipped at 2010 high of 2,947. Broad market volume picking up with 997 million shares traded vs only 680 million in yesterday's morning session; gainers outnumber losers 3 to 1. Trader at local brokerage says STI could be on its way to 3,000; "we are chugging along nicely and while there is not much in the way of news, the market is in a 'no news is good news' mentality." Offshore, marine plays leading blue chip gains, supported by spike in oil price; Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) +2.4% at S$1.30, Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) +2.0% at S$9.17. (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0855 GMT 0000 GMT - EUR/USD is not having much luck hanging on to its post-Greece rescue package gains, says UniCredit. Suggests the pair needs to at least break over 1.3840 "to get more convinced to go long here." The pair is now at 1.3781.
0844 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling has outperformed over the past 24 hours but now faces the hurdle of BOE minutes and labor data. RBS notes the MPC voted 9-0 in February to pause QE and this will likely also be the case in March. However, given the growing difference of opinion on QE among the MPC the bank says the discussion will be of interest. As for the labour data, RBS says while a better-than-expected print could see the pound rise further Wednesday, there are still plenty of reasons to expect further weakness in the week's ahead. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5222; EUR/GBP at 0.9051.(gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD made strong gains Tuesday and has started to erode its downtrend says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. It's now at 1.5255. The spot faces immediate resistance at 1.5275 and a break above here should trigger a deeper retracement toward 1.5575 and 1.5690. Alternatively, failure to overcome 1.5275 leaves the rate vulnerable toward Tuesday's low of 1.4975. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5215. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's profit-taking drop after BOJ easing, to as low as 90.02 from 90.40 on EBS, likely short-lived as market focuses on other USD-positives like continued strength in Japanese shares; Nikkei 225 off highs but still +0.6%. "As this was widely expected, the dollar-yen's decline was just driven by the sell-on-the-fact after players bought the currency on a rumor," says Nomura Securities senior dealer Hiroshi Maeba. Expects pair may stick to 89.00-91.00 range in longer-term. Support at 89.80 vs last 90.30. EUR/JPY support put at 124.00 vs 124.41. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0532 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY up as hedge funds, Japan institutional players buy pair as thick support around 90.00 held, causing them to get behind USD buying, says senior dealer at major Tokyo bank; "even though the BOJ's monetary easing was widely expected, that was also used as players' cue to buy back" USD. Resistance at 91.00 -- where Japan exporter sell-orders lie vs last 90.53. Another dealer notes USD/JPY likely to move in core range of 90.00-91.00 with lack of direction in coming week due to falling expectations Fed will hike rates anytime soon, after FOMC meeting overnight, coupled with BOJ's additional monetary easing. EUR/JPY rises in tandem with USD/JPY, topside at 125.00 vs last 124.81. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0425 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher at $1,128.40/oz, up $2.50 vs NY close. Market "pretty directionless post-FOMC, much of the rise came before the announcement," says ScotiaMocatta precious metals director Peter Tse. Adds March traditionally quiet trading month for gold, other metals; tips gold to stay in $1,100-$1,140 range. "There are still too many uncertainties in Europe that could lead to a risk reversal that could quickly end this rally within the range," says Tse. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
0510 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD continues to flirt around 0.9200; Jim Vrondas, a managing director with OzForex, reckons cross may have just gotten what it needs to push above that level after World Bank upgraded its growth outlook for China, Australia's largest trading partner. "That news will certainly give (AUD/USD) another leg up and could be enough to have the cross consolidate above 0.9200," says Vrondas. AUD/USD recently at 0.919. (geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3722, 1.3677 and 1.3644(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3610, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3583. Break of the latter would result in 1.3567. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3542. Continuation will give 1.3517. Today's resistance: - 1.3795(main). Break would give 1.3816, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3840. Break of the latter would result in 1.3857. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3870. Continuation will give 1.3906.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.00, 89.78 and 89.60(main). Break would bring 89.54, where correction is possible. Then 89.31, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 88.92. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.67. Continuation would give 88.22. Today's resistance: - 90.54, 90.90 and 91.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.36, where also a correction may be. Then 91.65. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.96. Continuation will give 92.13.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10620.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10572.19, where correction also can be. Then follows 10532.10. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10515.72. Continuation will bring 10479.40. Today's resistance: - 10702.24 and 10711.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 1068710736.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10752.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10778.50. Continuation would bring 10803.63.
Crude Oil Is Poised to Test $90 a Barrel: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may head toward $90 a barrel if it breaks a resistance level at $82, according to a technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atgCeP60AUok
Dollar May Gain on ‘Resistance Zone’ Break: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may advance to this year’s high against the yen if it breaks through a “zone of resistance” near its 200-day moving average, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTV3seEmEEBk
Dollar-Yen May Rally to Near One-Year High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rally versus the yen to a level last seen 11 months ago as the Japanese currency regains its leading role in carry trades, according to Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alIShDkNgKsk
Loonie May Revisit Record High, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar may push past parity with its U.S. counterpart and break through its 2007 record of $1.10 after the greenback breached a key support level, Societe Generale SA said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHzbNDZdylaQ
S&P 500 May Gain 7% After Breaching 1,150: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb as much as 7 percent after breaching the 1,150 level last week, according to technical analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6Lh4132iew8
Silver ‘Struggles’ at $17.63, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Silver is struggling to exceed a trading band of $17.48 to $17.63 an ounce, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afxIllCJwhd8
China in ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says
(Bloomberg) -- China is in the midst of “the greatest bubble in history,” said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1GkooFTV2MM
VIX Index Fails to Predict Stock Market Moves, Birinyi Says
(Bloomberg) -- The most popular measure of expected swings in the stock market is all but useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices, according to a study from Birinyi Associates Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDcatO6shYo
Investors Buy Stocks as Rate-Hike Concern Eases, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Risk appetite rebounded as concern eased that interest rates will have to rise later this year to cool inflation, prompting investors to cut cash holdings and buy equities, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTJPVQWXG0f0
Wednesday Look Ahead: Fed Waves on Rally, as Congress Feud with China Gains Momentum
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
The Fed again green lighted the risk rally. Stocks on Tuesday closed higher, and the dollar sank after the U.S. Federal Reserve made no changes to its low interest rate policy. Commodities-related materials stocks were the best performers, up 1.5 percent, followed by the financials, up 1.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35903585
World Bank Raises China 2010 GDP, Inflation Forecasts
By: Reuters
The World Bank raised its 2010 growth and inflation forecasts for China and recommended a tighter monetary policy as well as a stronger exchange rate to restrain inflation expectations and asset bubbles.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35905001
Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip: Whitney
By: Antonia Oprita Web Producer, CNBC.com
The US housing market will face another retreat while mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys are likely to go through a "material" correction, Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, told CNBC Tuesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35887306
Is Share Buyback Tsunami an Investor Buy Signal?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35897709
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