0919 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian shares end slightly lower on profit taking after surprisingly strong rally yesterday; but gains in select bank stocks help limit losses, dealers say; main index ends down 0.7% at 2737.242, with 120 decliners, 87 gainers; volume robust at 6.8 billion shares valued at IDR5.7 trillion. "Profit taking today was warranted, and may continue Friday," dealer with foreign securities firm says; market bellwether Telkom (TLKM.JK) ends down 2.9% at IDR8,350, Astra International (ASII.JK) down 1.6% at IDR40.200, Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK) down 6.0% at IDR5,450 after rising 11% yesterday; meanwhile state-run Bank Mandiri +5.1% at IDR5,200 on expectation its rights issue will be approved by parliament, Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) +1.8% at IDR290, Bank Tabungan (BBTN.JK) +8.3% at IDR1,170; 2690-2760 range tipped for Friday. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0849 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR maintains rebound in late session, may creep up Friday as more profit taking expected ahead of weekend, dealers say; pair now at 9,120 vs 9,110 late yesterday, but off 9,130 intraday high. "Any level above IDR9,150 will be a good point to sell back the dollar," a dealer says; adds underlying sentiment still positive on Indonesia's high-yielding assets after Fed pledged to keep interest rates low for extended period; 9,110-9,150 range tipped Friday. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0706 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI down 0.4% at 21,307.15 vs 0.2% gain midday, as investors take cautious approach following news Greece may soon seek financial help from IMF; volume remains modest at HK$37.44 billion. "The Hang Seng Index enjoyed a good spell since early February, and the strong momentum did surprise us on the upside," says CIMB. Expects index to stay in 21,000-21,430 range. Says uptrend channel remains intact until it falls below its 50-day moving average (20,889). After releasing FY09 results, China Mobile (0941.HK) down 0.6% at HK$75.05. while China Overseas (0688.HK) down 2.4% at HK$16.76. (susanna.tai@dowjones.com)
STerling gains after better than expected Public Finances
0831 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD remains in an upside corrective mode but needs to stay above 1.3628 to allow a test of key resistance between 1.3845 and 1.3894, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. Above 1.39 would open the topside to 1.4090 and possibly 1.4295-1.4344. However, failure of 1.3628 support should be enough to alleviate immediate upside pressure and open downside risk toward 1.3530 ahead of 1.3445 and 1.3405. EUR/USD now at 1.3678 from the day's low 1.3648. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0927 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY remains choppy within its 89.63-91.09 range and, while the former holds, marginal gains must be allowed for, says MIG Bank's Howard Friend. However a move below 89.63, which Friend favors, will signal an end to the current corrective bounce and open the downside toward the 88.14 and 87.09 lows. USD/JPY now at 90.02 from the day's low of 89.75. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0920 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY slips to a fresh one-week low of 89.75 weighed by EUR/JPY and to a lesser extent GBP/JPY cross selling. EUR/JPY trades at 122.65 from the day's high of 124.26 while GBP/JPY dips under 137.00 from a high of around 138.50. For USD/JPY next support comes in at 89.60 ahead of 89.00. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0912 GMT [Dow Jones] The USD is higher as suggestions that Greece may yet seek aid from the IMF sent the EUR reeling. The latest warning by a Greek official indicates that once again the Greek debt problem is far from being resolved. The GBP, which had been rebounding, is back under selling pressure again. The EUR is down at $1.3665 while the GBP is down at $1.5264. The USD, however, has fallen to Y89.94 as investors seek safe havens. nick.hastings@dowjones.com)
0854 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss National Bank's failure to counter the ongoing slide in EUR/CHF suggests it may be preparing to abandon its strategy of countering a franc appreciation through intervention, says Commerzbank. "The SNB had previously defended the 1.46-per-euro level, but has recently allowed a further appreciation of the franc," says currency strategist You-Na Park. EUR/CHF is at 1.4463 by 0850 GMT. (neil.maclucas@dowjones.com)
0551 GMT [Dow Jones/Nikkei] Nikkei June futures down 0.8 at 10,690, just off intraday low, after suddenly dropping from near break-even level just after 0500 GMT; Tokyo-based trader says suddenly weakening EUR/JPY (now 123.33) following rekindling of Greek's debt worries likely cause of pessimism. In cash market, Kenichiro Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities says, "The observation is growing that foreign investors who have been supporting the market until now have stopped buying." Mamoru Nakajo, manager at Phoenix Securities says technical resistance for futures equivalent to March settlement price of 10,808. Futures short-term moving average 10,700.(christopher.cushing@dowjones.com)
0443 GMT [Dow Jones] Daiwa Institute of Research says given its upside breakout through March options settlement level (last Friday), Nikkei should enjoy a further rally. Notes tertiary industry activity index had better-than-expected results, and March business conditions diffusion index also improved significantly. Notes (as of yesterday), DJIA continued to rise for 6 straight trading days (1st time since end-2009. "Although this type of short-term strength in share prices could signal a mid-term acceleration in the market, the market may experience a slowdown in the near term." Adds, technicals, such as 25-day Relative Strength Index, suggest rally may lose steam near term. Also notes, despite a lack of surprises in the latest US/Europe monetary policy meetings, Greek and US bonds have fared relatively well. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0454 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi down 0.2% at 1680.08 in light volume, off early high of 1687.70 as losses in shipbuilders, some banks offsetting gains in techs, airlines. "The index is taking a breather after yesterday's sharp rise, in tandem with Asian peers," says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; "the market is resilient. The 20-day moving average has crossed above the 120-day moving average, indicating the market is creating a (firm) uptrend." Expects Kospi to drift near 1680 rest of session. Hyundai Heavy (009540.SE) down 2.2% at KRW227,500, Shinhan Financial (055550.SE) down 1.9% at KRW43,750. Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +0.6% at KRW803,000, Korean Air (003490.SE) +1.6% at KRW64,800. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0442 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares slightly up midday in thin volume, on continued bargain hunting, as monetary-tightening concerns wane. Shanghai Composite Index +0.1% at 3054.56, faces psychological resistance at 3100. "Trading volume is picking up, and the blue chips are seeing more demand, but it will take a lot more funds entering the market to give it a bigger boost," says Zhang Qi from Haitong Securities. Some property developers higher on bargain-hunting after losses in recent sessions; brokerages also rising, buoyed by impending launch of stock index futures. Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) +0.1% at CNY48.35, Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SH) +0.1% at CNY8.28. Shenzhen Composite Index +0.4% at 1175.60. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0437 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares reverse earlier drop, tracking firmer regional markets; STI +0.2% at 2,923.84 midday vs morning low of 2,907.04 (down 0.4%) with resistance tipped at current 2010 high of 2,947. But DBS Vickers says STI may struggle to rise much further; "while STI could continue to edge a little higher, the low trading activity, the market rise that has not been broad based and the index now closer to 14.5X FY10 earnings suggest that there may not be much impetus to move far above 2,930." Bank heavyweights among best blue chip performers as their recent lackluster run attracts bargain hunting; DBS (D05.SG) +1.2% at S$14.62, UOB (U11.SG) +1.2% at S$19.20. But Genting Singapore (G13.SG) down 1.0% at S$0.955 as opening of Universal Studios theme park fails to lift stock amid worries over stretched valuation. (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0624 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley says BOJ's decision to expand monetary policy gives market an impression it is "somewhat behind the curve" in achieving showing its proactive stance to fight against critical problems: 1) deflation, 2) rise in real interest rates and 3) strong yen. "As long as strong yen pressure remains, the BoJ will likely continue to face strong pressure to take further step from both the markets and the Government." Anti-strong yen stance should be stock market supportive, especially vis-a-vis currency market-sensitive exporter shares as FY-end books close for many firms at end-month. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0218 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley chief economist Takehiro Sato says house still doesn't rule out chance of 5-10bp rate cut by BOJ in April-June quarter, although few other analysts have raised this as possibility; "although we are notably out of consensus on the above, in order for term rates and, most of all, the tibor to fall, we believe that a rate cut would be a more effective means than measures to encourage a decline in term rates." To reinforce effort to lower term-fund rates, BOJ decided yesterday to raise amount of 3-month fixed-rate operation to Y20 trillion from previous Y10 trillion. Sato says rate cut would be possible if FX, stock markets destabilize before Upper House election in July. USD/JPY now around 90.28, Nikkei ends morning session 0.2% lower at 10,823.94. Chances of BOJ rate cuts likely to be small, as BOJ officials, including Governor Shirakawa, have said current 0.1% policy rate already "virtually zero."(megumi.fujikawa@dowjones.com)
0501 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold staying steady at slightly lower levels, trading at $1,124.10/oz, down $1.00 vs NY close. Gold stuck in range, lacks direction, could take some cues from U.S. CPI, weekly jobless data later today, says Investec head of trading Darren Heathcote. "We've had an awful lot of volume in many markets for some time due to the sovereign debt issues surrounding Greece. We might be in for some consolidation now," says Heathcote. Adds, gold's bounce from $1,100 level this week positive, strengthens overall bullish conviction. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
0426 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY, EUR/USD down slightly as hedge funds, Japan institutional players sell EUR, taking cues from lower Nikkei (down 0.3%), Tokyo dealers say. Still, FX market relatively quiet in Asian trade as "more and more Japanese players, such as banks, don't want to tilt their positions radically" with Japan's March 31 fiscal year-end approaching, says Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. head of FX forward trading group Satoshi Okagawa. Tips EUR/JPY support at 123.40 vs last 123.82; EUR/USD floor at 1.3700 vs 1.3724. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0613 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY, EUR/USD fall, with riskier assets hit broadly on news Greece may soon seek financial help from IMF; adds to worries IMF may push Greece to take severe austerity measures, prompting overseas hedge funds, Japan interbank dealers to sell EUR, Tokyo dealer says. "Players who had became optimistic on the Greek fiscal problem are selling back" EUR. May be some concern over Greece facing tough medicine from IMF, including further spending cuts, and also at signs eurozone stepping back from helping Greece, showing weakness within that grouping. Dealer adds EUR/JPY may fall to 122.50 vs 123.22 now, EUR/USD to 1.3600 vs 1.3673. "If the IMF plays a major role in the Greek rescue, it will likely require the country to take very stringent" steps, says Mitsuru Sahara, senior dealer at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; "this would drag down the Greek economy more, if at least temporarily, than the (if it had the) E.U.'s help, pushing the euro lower." Greece may seek help from IMF over April 2-4 Easter weekend as Athens holds out little hope for aid next week from E.U., senior Greek official tells Dow Jones. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0303 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex crude prices may rise to $84-$85/bbl as investors dip their toes back into market, says Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates. "A renewed appetite for risk is currently spurring much of the price strength and is tied in with strong global equity markets and a soft U.S. dollar," he says in note; adds "For the time being, a renewed speculative incursion into the long side is developing even amid ample supply cover in both crude and products." According to weekly EIA report, crude stocks rose by 1 million barrels in week to March 12, in line with expectations of analysts in Dow Jones Newswires survey. Nymex crude last down 39 cents at $82.54/bbl on Globex after rising 1.5% overnight. (wayne.ma@dowjones.com)
Dow Average Exceeds Bull-Market Midpoint: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday rose above the midpoint of its last bull market in a positive sign for U.S. stocks, according to Richard Russell, who has studied the average since 1958.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW87yc3Zfv1M
Oil Has $88 a Barrel as Next ‘Port of Call’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will have $88 a barrel as the next “port of call” if the market this week can surpass technical chart resistance above $83, according to National Australia Bank Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akne0WOXWQKY
Euro Stoxx 50 to Rise, Then Test August Low: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s Stoxx 50 may gain another 9 percent before the end of April and then tumble, testing August lows, according to a technical analyst at ING Groep NV.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAyzvhBpLaf8
BRICs Rally Slows Amid Highest Valuations Since 1995
(Bloomberg) -- The combination of record mutual fund inflows and the fastest economic growth are failing to lift shares in the largest developing nations with valuations at the highest level versus advanced countries since at least 1995.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKHc5hD9w5lQ
Jim Rogers Sizes Up Two Global Bubbles
The euro is unlikely to still exist as a currency over the longer term, the pound will fall substantially in the next few years and US Treasurys and some real estate in China are the world's two current bubbles, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC.com Wednesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35906680
10 Reasons to Keep Your Money in the Market
The Dow on Wednesday broke through its 2010 peak of 10,725, closing eight points higher to mark its seventh straight positive close. The S&P 500 meanwhile registered an even better run, finishing up for the 14th straight day. Given this, some analysts might say the markets are too hot, but Cramer thinks they’re exactly where they should be.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35892910
Bulls Should Be Slapped On The Side Of The Head
Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics sure thinks so. He believes the state of the economy is far too precarious to support the market at its current levels.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35916113
Four Ways to Profit When Market Volume Takes a Plunge
Sure as the luck o' the Irish, the stock market's best fortunes over the past year have coincided with a low level of interest from investors.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35912868
Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
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