Monday, March 29, 2010

Update Daily Investment News

0916 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end down 0.7% at 2794.771 in moderate volume, off intraday low of 2780.826; profit taking after recent rally, absence of fresh leads weigh. Index still up 13.9% since start of 2010. "Local funds dominated the trade, taking profits in bank, automotive and telecommunication shares that gained recently," says trader at Lautandhana Securities; expects market to continue to consolidate tomorrow; tip index at 2760-2800 range. Among decliners: heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.2% at IDR8,100, Bank Rakyat (BBRI.JK) also down 1.2% at IDR8,300 while car maker Astra (ASII.JK) off 1.3% at IDR42,600. (

1049 GMT [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital has pared back its modest bearish view on GBP/USD and says consolidation above 1.4890 would imply further short-covering to 1.5115 and possibly even 1.5220. GBP/USD's rapid recovery would suggest last week's break of 14-month trendline support was a false one and that the rate will remain locked in its wider 1.48-1.54 range says BarCap. GBP/USD now at 1.4775. (

1134 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's break and weekly close above the 92.15 reaction high supports the view that the rate based-out at 88.14 says MIG Bank's Howard Friend. Provided that former resistance - which has now become support - at 90.84 holds Friend says, the immediate risk is for gains toward the recent high of 93.77. On the downside Friend says trade below 90.84, although not favored, would open risk back toward 88.14. USD/JPY now at 92.50. (

1157 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD is higher early Mon on the back of reports Greece will sell EUR5 billion of seven-year bonds to help meet debt obligations coming due in April. EUR/USD was at 1.3475 from 1.3417 late Fri, according to EBS via CQG. USD/JPY was at 92.53 from 92.50, while GBP/USD was at 1.4972 from 1.4899. ( 

Indonesian Stocks to Rise on Moving Average: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s stock index, Southeast Asia’s best performer this year, may extend gains after rising to a two-year high as the measure stays above its moving- average, a sign that the rally is sustainable.

0518 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares down 0.7% at 2792.266 at midday break on further profit-taking in most bank, telecommunication and automotive blue chips, traders say; tip support at 2780. "If the main index fails to close above the important level of 2800, the correction may continue tomorrow to reflect caution over whether most stock valuations are already overvalued," says fund manager at Andalan Artha Advisindo. Among decliners, heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.8% at IDR8,050, Bank Rakyat (BBRI.JK) down 1.8% at IDR8,250, while car maker Astra (ASII.JK) off 1.4% at IDR42,550. Mobile operator XL Axiata (EXCL.JK) +1.4% at IDR3,550 as investors who didn't receive shares in last week's private placement are buying stock in secondary market. (

0422 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.1% at 10,980.55, still hurt by ex-dividend selling, but losses being trimmed as mood supported by futures buying as well as gains in Asian markets; Nikkei may turn positive, says Japanese brokerage manager. Notes if ex-dividend-related losses (estimated at about 70 points) are added to index, Nikkei would already be in positive. Also says Nikkei may trade in range of 10,900-11,050 in afternoon. 16/33 Topix subindexes still negative, with drug shares vastly underperforming broader indexes; Takeda (4502.TO) down 3.1% at Y4,125. Hitachi (6501.TO) up 3.9% at Y345 on hopes for growth in railway business. (

0507 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei June futures up 0.5% at 10,980, off high of 11,010; futures market likely to rise mid-term on hopes for Japanese companies' earnings recovery in next FY; hopes for better BOJ tankan survey (of business sentiment, due April 1) should support mood this week, says Japanese brokerage manager. Also notes futures selling at staggered intervals; 1,500 contracts at 11,000, 1,000 contracts at 10,990 and 400 contracts at 10,970, indicating less selling pressure as index nears 10,950, which is likely to serve as support level near-term. (

0430 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi down 0.1% at 1696.43 in light volume after lurching in, out of positive territory earlier; foreigners still net buyers of shares worth KRW150.4 billion vs local retail investors net sellers of KRW144.4 billion so far. Kospi may stay near current level rest today with 1700 as strong psychological resistance. Earnings expectations still lifting some blue chips; Woori Finance (053000.SE) +4.6% at KRW16,100, Hynix (000660.SE) +2.8% at KRW25,900, Kia Motors (000270.SE) +2.4% at KRW25,800. Defence industry-related stocks still up, buoyed by warship sinking news; Huneed (005870.SE) +11.4% at KRW6,430, Victek (065450.KQ) +9.8% at KRW5,120. But builders weak on profit taking with Hyundai Engineering (000720.SE) down 2.5% at KRW63,500. (

0442 GMT [Dow Jones] Gains in most Asian markets keeping Singapore shares in positive territory, although upside appears limited as investors not inclined to chase with no catalyst in sight. STI +0.5% at 2919.72 midday after hovering in tight 2908-2922 range whole morning; resistance expected at current March high of 2932. "The market lacks power to propel further ahead. I think it's due for a correction before the rise continues," says dealer at local brokerage. Market breadth at just over two gainers for every decliner, with volume subdued at 761.4 million shares, driven mostly by small caps, such as Scintronix Corp. (T20.SG), +5.6% at S$0.095 on 45.8 million shares, GMG Global (5IM.SG), +3.2% at S$0.16 on 22.0 million shares, United Pulp & Paper (U09.SG), +14.3% at S$0.12 on 21.7 million shares. Among blue chips, notable gainers include Sembcorp Marine (S51.SG), +2.9% at S$4.20, Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG), +2.8% at S$4.11, Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG), +1.6% at S$9.30, SIA Engineering (S59.SG), +2.0% at S$3.63, SingTel (Z74.SG), +1.3% at S$3.24. (

0402 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore, India, Thailand likely to tighten monetary policy in April, as exports, domestic demand continue to grow, says Citigroup. Tips Singapore to steepen SGD NEER slope (doesn't say by how much), India to hike by another 50 bps, Thailand to make first hike of 25 bps; Indonesia appears region's "dove", following by South Korea. Adds, China may tighten liquidity next month, but likely by hiking reserve requirement ratio; says U.S.-China row on CNY has stalled CNY appreciation, tips CNY +4% over next 12 months, small rise of 0.5%-1.0% initially, effect to Asia likely small as offset by appreciation of other Asian currencies. House's near term FX top picks are KRW, IDR, MYR; also CNY NDFs which pricing in "too little" appreciation. (

0359 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie expects global coking coal market to show a 4% to 5% deficit, up from forecast deficit of 2%, as cyclone damage at Australia's Hay Point port is likely to take 3-6 weeks to repair, according to BHP Billiton (BHP.AU). Notes, Queensland exports to total roughly 33.5 million-34 million tons, down from expectations of 39 million-40 million tons. Says miners struggle with port closures, train derailments, high rainfall; Queensland supplies 55% of global metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking. "With blast furnace output extremely strong and coke stocks falling, a rush to secure supply could well see the (thinly traded) spot price rise, with the US$300/ton barrier certainly not out of reach," says Macquarie. Says current spot market at around US$230/ton, port closure indicates strong coking coal price rises for next quarterly settlement. (

0521 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold steady at $1,106.30/oz, down 40 cents, retracing earlier losses. Gold getting support from strong base metals prices, has good support around $1,100/oz area, says Fortis Nederland executive director Wallace Ng. "I can't see gold falling below $1,000," says Ng. (

0517 GMT [Dow Jones] LME strong during Asian trading, nickel +3.4% vs PM kerb at $23,600/ton, adding to near 4% overnight gains to set fresh near 2-year high. "The new nickel target is now $25,000 after breaking $23,200," says Singapore-based trader. Says positive technical outlook helping nickel, as is stock drawdowns, Friday overnight LME stocks fall a hefty 1,074 tons to 155,922 tons, following on from series of stock falls. Lack of progress to end strike at Vale's Sudbury nickel operation in Canada adds to concerns, as stainless steel sector showing increasing signs of life, says trader. Annual closure of Norilsk Nickel's Dudinka port in Siberia also coming up. LME copper also firm, +1.6% at $7,635. (

0450 GMT [Dow Jones] PREVIEW: BOJ March tankan, due 2350 GMT Wednesday, tipped to show sentiment among Japan's big manufacturers improved for 4th straight quarter with headline diffusion index likely recovering to minus 14 vs minus 25 in December, Dow Jones poll of 13 economists shows.

0432 GMT [Dow Jones] Daiwa Institute of Research in short-term market outlook says depreciation in yen likely to cause Japanese companies to raise earnings forecasts, encouraging stock investment from overseas plus subsequent market rally. Adds yen depreciation trend may strengthen depending on week's forthcoming economic indicators such as Bank of Japan Tankan corporate sentiment survey (due April 1), U.S. non-farm payrolls data (April 2). By sector, for investment purposes, house focusing on firms likely to benefit from consumer spending in Asia, particularly non-durables manufacturers and service firms (which house believes) will post relatively consistent, high growth. (

0511 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY falls slightly on reports of Moscow's metro explosion, says senior dealer at major bank in Tokyo. "Although the longer-term impact from this event is yet uncertain" as details are still sketchy, investors' first-reaction was sell EUR and buy safe-haven JPY, he says. EUR/JPY last 124.36 from 124.67 before explosion. EUR/USD show limited reaction to explosion; last at 1.3427 vs 1.3440. Russian news agencies say at least 25 people were killed in the incident.(

‘Double Top’ Signals Drop for Asian Stocks: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks, as measured by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, may drop toward their February lows after twice failing to stay above 125 points in the past three months, according to DMG & Partners Securities Pte. \

Robusta May Extend Advance to $1,360 a Ton: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Robusta coffee, now at a two-month high in London, may “soon” climb as high as $1,360 a metric ton, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group.

S&P 500 Posts Best Streak Without 1% Slump: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hasn’t had a drop of at least 1 percent in a month, the longest stretch during the yearlong bull market and a sign U.S. stocks are gaining momentum.

Citigroup Stops Losing Bet on Euro, Goldman Says Sell
(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. ended a bet that the euro will strengthen against the dollar as the European Union failed to agree on a strategy to bail out debt-stricken Greece without outside help.

Goldman Capitulation on Dollar Shows Reversal on U.S.

Payrolls Probably Increased in March: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. added jobs in March for the second time in more than two years, setting the stage for a broadening of the expansion, economists said before a report this week.

Dollar Heads for Biggest Quarterly Gain Versus Euro Since 2008
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose, poised for the biggest quarterly gain versus the euro since 2008, as European leaders’ struggle to forge a plan to bail out Greece pushed investors toward the perceived safety of the greenback.

China’s Stocks to Be Range-Bound in Second Quarter, Citic Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index may be range-bound between 2,900 and 3,400 in the second quarter, Citic Securities Co. said. The start of index futures trading and policies to boost new industries may increase stock valuations, it said.

S&P 500 Earnings Cheapest to Junk Yields Since ‘07 Signal Gains

China to Begin Stock Index Futures Trades on April 16
(Bloomberg) -- China will begin trading of stock- index futures on April 16, bolstering an equities market that has been the world’s third-worst performer this year.

China to Lead Emerging Stock Values Higher, Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- Developing nation stocks may see their market values rise more than fourfold in the next decade, propelled by the increasing significance of China, according to Morgan Stanley.

Bill Gross Warning May Catch Bond Investors Off-Guard
(Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross’s warning that the almost three-decade rally in fixed-income has run its course may catch individual investors off guard after they poured $89 billion into bond funds this year.

Nikkei 225 May Rise to Pre-Lehman Shock Level by May, Ace Says
(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average may rebound to its pre-“Lehman Shock” level by May on the outlook for improved earnings, said Kenji Kobata, president of Ace Securities Co. and former head of investment research at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Global Food Reserve Needed to Stabilize Prices, Researchers Say
(Bloomberg) -- A global crop reserve system is needed to reduce price volatility, curb speculation and prevent a food crisis, said researchers from Germany and France.

Week Ahead: Jobs, Rising Rates Could Tell the Same Story for Markets
It's all about jobs and rising interest rates in the week ahead—and the two are not unrelated.The March employment report is released Friday and is expected to show the first real signs of job growth since the recovery began. The consensus forecast is for an increase of about 200,000 non farm payrolls, but some forecasts are for 300,000 and better.

Dow Can Hit 12,000 By Year-End — Here's What to do Now
Markets wavered on Friday after a better-than-expected reading on consumer sentiment. How should investors position their portfolios going forward? Bob Auer, portfolio manager at Auer Growth Fund, Jerry Castellini, president and chief investment officer of CastleArk Management, and Mark Freeman, portfolio manager at WHG Funds, discussed their insights.

Jim Rogers on Oil, Gold and the Biggest US Bubble
Debate on the scope and risks of the US health care plan still rages even as Pres. Obama unveiled a $14 billion plan to help homeowners. And the impact of a Greek bailout on the Eurozone economies is still a question.

Will Bull Keeping Running Into Quarter-End?
The market melt-up continued on Friday with both the Dow and S&P ending in positive territory despite some serious headwinds.

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