0933 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.1% at 2798.268 in moderate volume, off intraday high of 2817.708, tracking gains across Asian markets after stocks in U.S. ended higher Monday. "Overall sentiment, however, looked cautious as local funds took profit on any rebounds," says trader at Reliance Securities; expects shares to consolidate tomorrow ahead of March inflation data Thursday; tips index in 2790-2810 range. Among gainers: Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) up 1.9% at IDR5,500, Indosat (ISAT.JK) up 1.8% at IDR5,600 on bargain buying. Profit taking hits nickel miner Inco (INCO.JK) down 1.6% at IDR4,625. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com)
0923 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR turns slightly higher late in session; at 9,090 vs 9,085 late Monday on buying by local names for month-end debt repayment. "At the current level, the dollar looks attractive which inspired local funds to buy the greenback," says trader at local bank; tips USD may continue to strengthen tomorrow, with resistance of 9,100 likely being tested. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com)
1009 GMT [Dow Jones] Following last week's Key Reversal Day in EUR/USD the outstanding short positions highlighted in the latest CFTC report are likely to get squeezed further says Barclays Capital. For the rest of this week, the bank looks for a 1.3350-1.3550 range to hold but says a weekly close above 1.3450 will be enough to turn its outlook bullish for 2Q with any break above 1.3570 triggering a run toward stops in the 1.3800-50 area. Now at 1.3475. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
1025 GMT [Dow Jones] As with EUR/USD, Barclays Capital sees risk that the large short positions shown up in the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report are likely to be squeezed into the long weekend. The bank says consolidation above 1.4950 implies a run toward 1.5115 or even 1.5220 as sentiment unwinds from implying the market is extremely oversold. GBP/USD now at 1.5080. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0746 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD has seen a strong bounce from last week's 1.3265 low and breached its one year resistance line at 1.3510 Monday notes Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph. However it now faces the 20 DMA at 1.3587 and the 4 month channel resistance line at 1.3657 and either one should be enough to cap any further recovery this week says Rudolph. On the downside he looks for a revisit to the 1.3265 lows. EUR/USD now at 1.3515. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0717 GMT [Dow Jones] The JPY finally looks ripe for a breakout on the downside, according to Forex Focus by Nicholas Hastings. After being stuck in a narrow trading range against the dollar for most of this year, the Japanese currency appears ready to succumb to a steady increase in selling pressure. The rising risk of a credit downgrade combined with wider yields spreads in the USD's favor means that the start of a new Japanese financial year next month could bring a sharp sell off. (nick.hastings@dowjones.com)
0739 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY may rise to 125.60 vs last 125.26 as any further strength in global equities increases appetite for risk-sensitive cross, already higher after most Asian bourses rise, says Yuzo Sakai, manager of FX business promotion at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow. Also says comment from Fitch Ratings' Asia sovereign ratings director Andrew Colquhon, reported by Reuters, calling EU/IMF aid for Greece "positive" prompted knee-jerk buying by some short-term players; but effect limited as Colquhon also says uncertainty remains over Greece's growth prospects, ability to adhere to austerity plan, says Sakai. Yuji Saito, director of FX department at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank echoes that, says bump in EUR also comes as common currency rides up on coattails of higher GBP following data showing UK March house prices up 0.7% on-month, beating expectations for 0.3% rise. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3390 and 1.3362(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3331, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3315. Break of the latter would result in 1.3283. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3256. Continuation will give 1.3228.
Today's resistance: - 1.3522, 1.3567, 1.3590 and 1.3618(main). Break would give 1.3648, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3669. Break of the latter would result in 1.3686. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3741. Continuation will give 1.3787.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 92.14 and 91.80(main). Break would bring 91.56, where correction is possible. Then 94.34, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.13. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.00. Continuation would give 89.78 and 89.60.
Today's resistance: - 92.84, 93.03 and 93.20(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 93.47, where also a correction may be. Then 93.66. If a strong impulse, we would see 93.87. Continuation will give 94.04.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10856.22, 10834.10, 10811.30 and 10796.38(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10783.12, where correction also can be. Then follows 10752.40. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10721.27. Continuation will bring 10681.90.
Today's resistance: - 10912.60 and 10935.23(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10958.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10984.62, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11008.13. Continuation would bring 11035.46
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
The Rupee should be in a range of 44.85- 45.03 levels for the day. Technically strong support comes near 44.50 levels from where rupee can correct back to 45 levels. Importers cover near 44.65- 44.95 levels and exporters cover at every spike (USDINR 44.92). INR Bullish. Target 44.50 intact.
The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3488 levels. It has made an immediate bottom close to 1.3270 levels 2-3 sessions back. The medium term view remains bearish for the pair targeting 1.30 levels. As expected we have witnessed an upmove towards 1.35-1.36 levels. Look at the opportunities to go shorts near 1.3590-1.3650 levels on the pair or cover for exports till April end atleast. We do not see further bearishness below 1.29 - 1.30 levels. Incase 1.3640 breaks and holds then we should hold on for further export covers.(EURUSD - 1.3488). Bearish below 1.3650 levels.
GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.5020 levels after making a low at 1.4794 levels. The medium term (1-3 months) view on Sterling remains bearish. We might get retracements above 1.52 -53 levels again but overall target remains bearish till 1.45 -1.46 levels where it looks to bottom out. Look at opportunities to go shorts on upmoves or cover exports till April end around 1.52-1.55 levels. (GBPUSD 1.5020). Bearish below 1.5370 levels
USDJPY is currently trading at 92.30 levels. Weekly close above 92 levels has increased chances for a move towards a 96-98 levels. Importers hold for covers till 95 levels atleast. Buys could be initiated at 92 levels stoploss at 89 levels. Target 96-98 levels and higher. Exporters book for 2-3 months at current levels.(USDJPY- 92.30). Bearish heading towards a 96-98 levels by April end.
AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.9190 levels. It is almost holding in a range of 0.9000-9200 levels. We could see some correction signs in Australian dollars incase gold is unable to stay above $1100 dollars for long. Exporters in Aud may start booking from 0.91 -0.93 levels or traders might cautiously enter short positions close to 0.92-0.93 levels with a stoploss above 0.94 levels for 300 pips and importers wait for correction and book close to 0.88-.8850 levels by April End. (AUDUSD - 0.9190). Topping out.
Gold is currently trading at $1112 levels and the bias is slightly unclear till it is in the range of 1080-1130 dollars. Stay away till direction is clear. (Gold- $1112) Neutral
Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption. (Dollar Index – 81.25). Overall Bullish
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