Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Update Daily Investment News

0938 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end down 0.8% at 2777.301 in moderate volume as losses in most Asian markets trigger profit-taking in most blue chips. "There were fears that the correction may continue tomorrow, so most investors prefer to take cash to prepare for the worst," says trader at Valbury Securities; tips support tomorrow at 2750. Among decliners, coal miner Bumi (BUMI.JK) down 4.3% at IDR2,250, Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK) down 4.6% at IDR5,200, Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) down 2.7% at IDR5,350. (

0921 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR steady late Wednesday at 9,090, off intraday high of 9,115, vs late yesterday at 9,090. "Mild dollar selling by several state-owned banks, which could be on behalf of the central bank, lifted the rupiah from its low," says trader at foreign bank; expects IDR to strengthen tomorrow and test 9,070 resistance due to healthy inflows. (

0803 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD's recovery stalled between its one-year resistance line at 1.3513 and the 20 DMA at 1.3575 and the downside is once again favored, says Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph. Now at 1.3436, he is focusing on the 2010 low of 1.3265 with the 1.3095-80 support area exposed below. Topside, Rudolph says the 4-month channel resistance line at 1.3639 should cap any unexpected recovery. (
0911 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD adds some 10 ticks and hits the day's high at 1.3467 after the euro zone March inflation estimate comes in at 1.5% against 1.2% expected and euro zone February unemployment rate matches the forecast at 10%.

0734 GMT [Dow Jones] The USD/JPY has already risen over 93 as fiscal year-end flows in favor of the JPY come to an end, says RBS. Expect a rise towards the year's high at 93.77 before nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, the bank predicts. The pair is now at 93.29. (
0836 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's break and weekly close above its recent 92.15 high supports the view that the rate based at 88.14 says MIG Bank's Howard Friend. While 92.15 holds he says the immediate risk is for a move to the 93.77, the 2010 highs above which signals the next leg of a larger advance toward the August 2009 highs of 97.78 would be underway. USD/JPY now at 93.23. (

0805 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD continues to outperform, but also struggles above 1.51. The rate peaked at 1.5125 on Monday and then slipped to around 1.5060, so far Tuesday it has peaked at 1.5112 and now trades at 1.5095. Commerzbank pegs resistance levels at 1.5120, 1.5150 and 1.5197, with support at 1.50. (
0843 GMT [Dow Jones] If GBP/USD's push higher can sustain a move above 1.5112 then the topside risk will be towards 1.5217 and 1.5382, says MIG Bank's Howard Friend. While the latter holds the overall bias remains lower, with any loss of 1.4955 signaling that the bears have regained control. GBP/USD now trades at the day's high of 1.5140, after spiking through stops between 1.5115-20. (

0804 GMT [Dow Jones] Positioning ahead of ADP data Wednesday, US payrolls Friday and the long Easter holiday in Europe this weekend is depressing the USD but helping the EUR and the GBP higher. This helped the EUR to reverse some of the losses it made earlier as Greek yields rose back over levels seen before the IMF and EU came up with an emergency funding plan nearly a week ago. The EUR hadn't been helped by the IMF's insistence that it won't be giving Greece any special terms either. In the meantime, poor housing starts in Japan and weak retail sales in Australia was undermining confidence in the global recovery. The USD is up at Y93.27, while the EUR is up at $1.3433. The GBP is also higher, climbing to $1.5100. (

0233 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei ends morning session up 0.3% at 11,130.98, moving in relatively tight 50-point range (11,089.24 to 11,138.76). Solid USD/JPY (now 93.25), overnight DJIA, Nasdaq advances helping lift some high-tech, auto stocks, while recent laggards, including real estate shares, also gaining (+1.8%). But further upside for index may be limited; players watching currency levels keenly (especially USD/JPY) for further weakness for boost to exporter earnings. Comments by U.S. Dallas Federal Reserve Board President Fisher that it's still too early to raise key rates/rates will be raised "with meaning" when time due, etc probably aimed at calming impatient investors anticipating timing of actual hike, says sales manager at Japanese brokerage. 19/33 Topix subindexes higher; Honda (7267.TO) up 0.5% at Y3,310, Canon (7752.TO) 0.9% higher at Y4,365. Among real estate shares, Mitsubishi Estate (8802.TO) up 2.2% at Y1,551. (

0440 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI down 0.2% at 21,339.94 midday, in line with mixed performance on Wall Street; modest profit-taking witnessed after its 3-session 2.9% rise, as further falls likely limited by window dressing activities ahead of end-1Q today. "We maintain our view that 20,700 would be a critical support for the HSI once a minor correction occurs, and investors are highly recommended to keep an eye on the job market data (to be announced later this week in the U.S)," says Phillip Securities. Tips support and resistance today at 21,150 and 21,560 respectively. Volume modest at HK$35.81 billion. Henderson Land (0012.HK) down 1.8% at HK$56.05 on profit-taking post-result announcement, while Bank of Communications (3328.HK) +4.3% at HK$9.24 after stronger-than-expected results. (

0240 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi last flat at 1699.87 after lurching in, out of positive territory amid lack of strong, fresh momentum that could help benchmark index break above 52-week high around 1720, expected to fluctuate in tight band rest of today; foreigners net buyers for 14 successive days, cushioning profit-taking, fund redemption. Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +1.8% at KRW829,000, Hynix (000660.SE) +2.1% at KRW26,950 on expectations for steady increase in DRAM chip shipments, sustainability of strong DRAM chip prices in 1H, says Park Hyun at Prudential Investment & Securities. LG Display (034220.SE) +1.3% at KRW40,400 on earnings expectations. But autos, selective banks weak on profit-taking after recent gains; Hyundai Motor (005380.SE) down 1.3% at KRW114,500, Woori Finance (053000.SE) down 3.0% at KRW16,300. Posco (005490.SE) down 1.1% at KRW532,000, Hyundai Steel (004020.SE) down 1.6% at KRW85,800 partly due to soaring raw material prices. (

0445 GMT [Dow Jones] Appetite for Singapore shares generally still weak as investors content to stay on sidelines after booking recent gains in early trade. STI off 0.6% at 2915.65 midday, may hold above 2900 for rest of session. Market breadth at just under two decliners for every gainer. "Things in the market seem to be coming more or less to a head," says SIAS Research technical analyst Edmund Seow; "a good idea might be to hold back any heavy positions to enter for today, as tomorrow is the last trading day of the week." Penny stocks faring better as players seek out shares with potential for higher absolute returns; FTSE ST Catalist Index +2.8%. Overall volume tad higher than usual at 951.6 million shares, driven mostly by small caps. Among blue chips, key decliners include SingTel (Z74.SG), off 1.8% at S$3.20, UOB (U11.SG), off 1.5% at S$19.46, OCBC (O39.SG), off 1.6% at S$8.77, CapitaLand (C31.SG), off 1.5% at S$4.02. (

0329 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY may rise toward 93.80 in global day, if level breached, then pair may climb above 94.30, says Shinkin Central Bank senior dealer Jun Kato; "today's rise is mostly due to aggressive buying from Japanese importers and institutional investors." Says trust funds especially bullish on pair since "U.S. shares and yields are recently firm, so they bet asset prices in the U.S. will keep rising for the time being." Pair last 93.24. EUR/JPY has upward bias as well, as Nikkei now above psychologically important 11,000 mark, prompting investors to seek high-yielding investments; EUR/JPY last 124.95, resistance 125.50. EUR/USD bias downward as concerns over Greece linger though nation likely to get a rescue package. "Default risk is gone, but we are still worried about whether the nation can raise necessary funds via bond selling in the near future." EUR/USD last 1.3400, tipped in 1.3350-1.3480 range for now. (

0350 GMT [Dow Jones] PREVIEW: Malaysia February exports likely +24.7% on year, moderating from January's +37.0% on year due to short working month, Lunar New Year holidays, shows median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones. "While the positive base effect will ensure exports will expand again by double-digit growth rates in February, we expect some downside pressure in the month due to Lunar New Year, which typically means temporary plant closures for about one week," says Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew. Adds, import growth likely to accelerate on year on improvement in consumption, investment sentiment rebound. Median forecast is for imports to rise 34.8% on year vs 31.0% in January; February trade surplus at MYR11.9 billion vs MYR12.93 billion previous month. Trade data due at 1001 GMT Friday. (

0355 GMT [Dow Jones] Big AUD/USD sell-off today could reverse soon; Gareth Berry, director of FX strategy for UBS in Singapore says weak Aussie retail sales, building approvals haven't permanently changed bullish bias for AUD. "Although the data was poor, considering we've had so many (RBA rate) hikes, it's not that bad. This drop is a short-term affect and you'll see Aussie back to where it was in next 24 to 48 hours." AUD/USD last at 0.9154, down from 0.9204 just prior to data. (

0329 GMT [Dow Jones] LME copper lower at $7,768/ton, down $81 vs PM kerb, after gaining up to 4% so far this week to hit highest level since August 2008. Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi Yu says copper prices likely to strengthen, forecasts average price of $7,900 for 2Q. "We expect copper to hit $8,000 in the next few months. Markets aren't yet pricing in a recovery in demand in the OECD countries, and remain skeptical and nervous about macro news," says Yu. Adds, European debt troubles, China monetary tightening to "continue to inject volatility, but commodity markets should start to take less notice. We're seeing more and more positive data from OECD countries." China to remain strong importer of refined metal during 2010. (

0303 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $1,107.15/oz, up $3.85 vs NY close; market quiet, looking to USD for direction, says Lee Cheong Gold Dealers director Ronald Leung. "The market is in pre-holiday mood, but it's also focusing on the Greek bond auctions." Interest at Monday's EUR5 billion, 7-year bond sale muted, capping investor risk appetite. Leung says gold to stay in $1,080-$1,130 range. (

0421 GMT [Dow Jones] Even with weak retail sales and building approvals data pushing Australian bond prices higher today, traders still have a bias RBA's move next week will be to hike cash rate 25 bps to 4.25%. "I think people are still pretty convinced they're going to go," says a senior Sydney-based IR trader, adding recent speeches from RBA board members still outweigh today's data. Market expectations currently pricing in 75% chance of a hike, even as weak data fuels move into short-dated bonds. 3-year futures recently up 2 ticks to 94.58. (

S&P 500 to Rise 13% on ‘Confirmed Breakout’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, heading for its biggest first-quarter gain since 1998, will probably rise 13 percent in the next few months after staging a “confirmed breakout,” says Katie Stockton of MKM Partners.

Ringgit May Gain 4.2% on Fibonacci Charts: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s ringgit may gain 4.2 percent against the dollar by early July after it rose through a key technical level yesterday, according to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Bill Gross May Be Predicting Bull Run in Stocks: David Pauly
(Bloomberg) -- This may be the best news for stocks in a long time: Bill Gross, who manages the world’s biggest bond fund, says the 30-year bull market in fixed-income securities is ending.

China Stocks May Break Out in Second Half, Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks may “break out” in the second half, buoyed by easing tightening concerns and a possible appreciation in the yuan, Morgan Stanley said.

Stocks May Fall as Short Selling Slumps, Data Explorers Says
(Bloomberg) -- A 38 percent plunge in short selling of stocks in the past year may cause equities to fall as fewer investors can buy back the shares and cover these bearish bets, the research firm Data Explorers said.

China May Shun Treasuries, Sending Yields to 4.5%, SocGen Says
(Bloomberg) -- China may curb purchases of U.S. Treasuries this year as its first trade deficit in 17 years leaves it with fewer dollars to invest, causing yields to climb, according to Societe Generale SA.

OPEC, IEA, IEF to Unveil Measure to Combat Oil-Price Volatility
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the International Energy Forum will announce a “joint action plan” this week to combat oil-market volatility, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said.

Hedge-Fund Returns Dragged Down by ‘Hidden Bias’: Chart of Day
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund returns are worse than industry figures would suggest because many funds on the brink of failure stop reporting on their performance, according to a new academic study

Could This Be Start of 'The Great Bear Market in Bonds'?
One firm calls it "The End of the Affair." A strategist says it's "the beginning of the end."  A trader asks, "Has the great bear market in bonds now started?"

Brace For 5-10% Market Correction: Portfolio Manager
Markets climbed on Tuesday following some big news in the smartphone industry and on a strong consumer-confidence report. How long will stocks continue to rally? David Hefty, chief executive of Cornerstone Wealth Management, and Sarat Sethi, partner and portfolio manager at Douglas C. Lane & Associates, shared their insights.

Halftime Report: Pullback Or Profit Taking?
A new all time high for a number of stocks couldn’t keep the S&P in the green on Tuesday.
Is the action just end of quarter profit taking or are we heading for a pullback?

Art Cashin: Markets Still Fear Sovereign Risk
Stocks teetered in a narrow range on Tuesday. Analysts expect markets to be volatile the next two days as investors usually take part in "window dressing" — trades intended to boost returns on reports sent to shareholders — at the end of a quarter. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, shared his market insights.

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