Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 43.83 is expected to extend further to 60 psychological level which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 60.12. Firm break there will set the stage for further rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.96). On the downside, below 56.70 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 50.60 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.96 and 55 months EMA at 68.74. The development in the next few weeks will be important in determining if the trend in crude oil has reversed or not. In particular, focus will be on the upper channel resistance (now at 64 level) and the mentioned EMA resistance. Strong break there will argue that rise from 33.2 is "accelerating" and thus indicate that it's developing into up trend of a larger scale. However, bounce off from these levels, followed by break of 43.83, will indeed indicate that rise fro 33.2 is merely a correction in the larger down trend only.
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