Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the May newsletter, I indicated that major indexes were expected to retest their march lows by early July. Models were suggesting that the highest probability of renewed weakness could be expected in mid-May. Though the actual change in trend has not quite occurred, the bullish attitude and trading over the last 2-3 days for the benchmark S&P 500 has clearly shifted to a more bearish tone. Once the index closes below 890, the bullish uptrend that began in early March has ended. As the low is anticipated in 7-8 weeks, models continue to point to 700-650 by July.Bottom line: As there has not been a final bear market trough in March for over 70 years, probability models would suggest that this past low of 670 for the S&P 500 is unlikely the bottom. The greatest likelihood still rests with the coming October trough. Of the last 12 bear markets since 1946, six declines posted their deepest level in October.
Your comments are always welcomed.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
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